基于集成学习与多尺度可解释性分析的混凝土抗压强度预测及影响因素研究
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昆明理工大学 国土资源工程学院

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TU528.52;TP181

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Research on Concrete Compressive Strength Prediction and Influencing Factors Based on Ensemble Learning and Multiscale Interpretability Analysis
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Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    为解决混凝土28 d抗压强度预测中试验周期长及经验模型难以刻画多因素非线性耦合的问题,本文提出一种融合多模型协同优化与多尺度可解释的预测方法。基于UCI数据集,结合 LASSO-CV 正则化分析、随机森林 MDI 特征重要性验证与变量消融实验,确定水泥、水、高炉矿渣、粉煤灰、减水剂和粗骨料 6 个关键输入变量,构建K近邻、支持向量回归、随机森林和梯度提升回归树四种模型,并分别结合粒子群优化、非洲秃鹰优化、贝叶斯优化和遗传算法进行超参数优化。在此基础上,以岭回归为元学习器,结合折外预测构建堆叠集成模型,并融合SHAP、PDP和LIME开展多尺度可解释分析。结果表明,在既定测试集划分下,堆叠模型在测试集上取得最优性能(R2=0.943,RMSE=3.613),进一步开展30次重复分层7∶3随机划分试验,堆叠模型的平均R2为0.8306±0.0265,平均RMSE为5.6619±0.4934,分别取得全部比较模型中的最高R2和最低RMSE,优于单一模型及其优化版本。SHAP识别出水泥和用水量为混凝土28 d抗压强度的主导因素,PDP揭示变量主效应与交互关系,LIME补充局部解释。最终构建智能预测与解释系统,实现方法工程应用。该方法兼具高精度与可解释性,可为混凝土配合比优化设计与强度快速评估提供有效工具。

    Abstract:

    In order to address the long testing cycle and the difficulty of empirical models in capturing complex nonlinear interactions among multiple factors in predicting the 28-day compressive strength of concrete, a prediction framework integrating multi-model optimization and multiscale interpretability was developed in this study. Based on the UCI dataset, six key input variables were selected using LASSO-CV regularization, random forest MDI feature importance, and variable ablation experiments. The selected variables were cement, water, blast furnace slag, fly ash, superplasticizer, and coarse aggregate. Four models, namely K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), were constructed and optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), African Vulture Optimization Algorithm (AVOA), Bayesian Optimization, and Genetic Algorithm (GA), respectively. A stacking ensemble model was then developed using Ridge Regression as the meta-learner and an out-of-fold prediction strategy. SHAP, Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), and LIME were further integrated for multiscale interpretability analysis. The results show that the stacking model achieves the best performance on the test set, with an R2 of 0.943 and an RMSE of 3.613. Furthermore, 30 repeated stratified 7:3 random split experiments show that the stacking model achieves the highest average R2 (0.8306 ± 0.0265) and the lowest average RMSE (5.6619 ± 0.4934) among all compared models, indicating good generalization performance and stability. SHAP analysis identifies cement and water as the dominant variables affecting the 28-day compressive strength of concrete. PDP illustrates the main effects and interactions among the key variables, while LIME provides additional local interpretations. An intelligent prediction and interpretation system is constructed to support engineering applications. The proposed method provides an effective tool for concrete mix proportion optimization and rapid strength evaluation, with high prediction accuracy and favorable interpretability.

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吴顺川,高雨诺,韩龙强,等. 基于集成学习与多尺度可解释性分析的混凝土抗压强度预测及影响因素研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-15
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-09
  • 录用日期:2026-09-10
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