基于DEMATEL-ISM-可拓云湿陷性黄土隧道施工安全韧性评价
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兰州交通大学

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[U25]

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72561017);甘肃省联合科研基金重点项目(24JRRA869);甘肃省自然科学基金青年项目(25JRRA207)


Based on DEMATEL-ISM-Extension Cloud collapsible loess tunnel construction safety resilience evaluation
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School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    针对湿陷性黄土隧道工程施工安全事故发生风险大和安全管理难度高等问题。根据影响隧道施工安全的因素,基于4M1E理论,从“人-机-料-法-环”5个维度出发,结合韧性理论的4个特征要素—抵抗性、冗余性、恢复性与适应性,构建湿陷性黄土隧道施工安全韧性评价机理模型。综合施工技术、事故原因和文献阅读三种方式选取指标,通过Delphi法进行筛选,最终构建包含28个指标的评价指标体系。使用决策实验室分析法与解释结构模型(DEMATEL-ISM)来分析各个指标之间的相互影响关系,绘制有向拓扑层级图,从不同维度对层级结构进行分析,得到“月降雨量最大值”和“变形速率”等指标对施工安全影响较大;通过加权聚合的方式将可拓云模型引入层级网络,建立综合评价模型。根据结果优先和原因优先两种不同的逻辑方式分别计算指标权重,以秦东隧道为例进行评价,两种逻辑方式计算结果都为“一般韧性”。结合工程实际情况,针对“施工人员自救能力”等低韧性指标提出具体的建议。研究通过DEMATEL-ISM对可拓云模型进行改进,为韧性评价方法的探索提供思路;实例验证结果与实际情况相符,为同类工程施工过程中保障施工安全提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the high risk of safety accidents and great difficulties in safety management during the construction of tunnels in collapsible loess, this study establishes a mechanism model for evaluating the construction safety resilience of collapsible loess tunnels. Based on the 4M1E theory, the model is constructed from five dimensions of man, machine, material, method and environment according to the factors affecting tunnel construction safety, while incorporating four characteristic elements of resilience theory, namely resistance, redundancy, recoverability and adaptability. Evaluation indicators are selected through three approaches: construction technology analysis, accident cause investigation and literature review, and further screened using the Delphi method. Finally, an evaluation indicator system consisting of 28 indicators is established. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory combined with Interpretive Structural Modeling (DEMATEL-ISM) is adopted to analyze the interactive relationships among all indicators, and a directed topological hierarchy diagram is plotted. Analysis on the hierarchical structure from multiple dimensions reveals that indicators such as maximum monthly rainfall and deformation rate exert prominent impacts on construction safety. The extension cloud model is integrated into the hierarchical network via weighted aggregation to develop a comprehensive evaluation model. Indicator weights are calculated following two logics: result priority and cause priority. Taking the Qindong Tunnel as a case study, the evaluation results under both logics indicate a general resilience level. Combined with actual engineering conditions, targeted countermeasures are proposed for low-resilience indicators including construction personnel"s self-rescue capability. This research improves the extension cloud model with DEMATEL-ISM, offering new ideas for the development of resilience evaluation methods. The case verification results are consistent with actual conditions, which can serve as a reference for safety guarantee during the construction of similar projects.

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樊燕燕,何强,王力. 基于DEMATEL-ISM-可拓云湿陷性黄土隧道施工安全韧性评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-28
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-27
  • 录用日期:2026-09-09
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