融合STAMP理论与动态贝叶斯网络的风险评估方法
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中国人民公安大学信息网络安全学院

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X913

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国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3306901)


A Risk Assessment Method Integrating STAMP Theory and Dynamic Bayesian Networks
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School of Information and Network Security,People’s Public Security University of China

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    摘要:

    为解决动态风险评估中贝叶斯网络构建缺乏系统理论指导难以有效表征系统控制反馈机理的问题,提出一种融合系统论事故模型与过程(STAMP)理论与动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的风险评估方法。首先,基于安全控制结构辨识不安全控制行为(UCA),并以此构建风险评估指标体系;其次,确立动态贝叶斯网络拓扑结构转化的三种映射规则,实现定性风险分析向定量评估模型的逻辑转化;进而利用双向推理功能,实现风险预测分析与关键风险要素识别;最后,以美国交通事故数据集进行实证分析与方法验证。结果表明,该方法能够精准捕捉系统关键风险要素的阶段性演化特征,实现风险状态的动态推演与关键风险要素辨识,揭示系统控制反馈回路对风险演化的影响规律。该方法通过三重映射机理实现评估模型由定性分析向定量评估的准确转化,为不同系统动态风险评估提供了结构化建模依据。

    Abstract:

    In order to address the lack of systematic theoretical guidance and the difficulty in effectively representing system control-feedback mechanisms in Bayesian network construction for dynamic risk assessment, a risk assessment method integrating System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) with Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) was proposed. First, a risk assessment indicator system was constructed by identifying Unsafe Control Actions (UCAs) based on safety control structures. Then, three mapping rules for the transformation of DBN topological structures were established to realize the logical transition from qualitative risk analysis to quantitative assessment models. Furthermore, the bidirectional reasoning function was utilized for risk prediction and identification of key risk factors. Finally, empirical analysis and validation were conducted using the US-Accidents dataset. The results demonstrate that the method accurately captures the stage-wise evolutionary characteristics of key risk factors, enables dynamic risk propagation analysis as well as key risk factor identification, and reveals the influence of system control-feedback loops on risk evolution. It is concluded that the proposed method achieves the accurate transformation of assessment models from qualitative analysis to quantitative assessment through the triple mapping mechanism, providing a structured modeling basis for the dynamic risk assessment of diverse systems.

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彭向东,胡啸峰,胡今鸣. 融合STAMP理论与动态贝叶斯网络的风险评估方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-10
  • 录用日期:2026-07-27
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