?基于QR分位-iTransformer-LSTM模型的矿井两带发育概率区间预测
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1.煤炭科学研究总院;2.中煤科工西安研究院(集团)有限公司

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TD747

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目52474278),贵州省科技厅重大专项(贵州省科技重大计划项目黔科合重大专项字[2024]029)


Probability interval prediction of the development of the two zones in the mine based on the QR quantile-itransformer -LSTM model
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1.China Coal Research Institute;2.CCTEG Xi’an Research Institute Group Co,Ltd,Xi’an

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    摘要:

    矿井“两带”发育高度的准确预测对矿井水害防治以及安全高效生产具有重要的意义。为构建适用于西部受洛河组巨厚砂岩水害威胁的矿井顶板两带发育高度预测模型,本文以受该种水害严重威胁的某矿井作为研究对象,将矿井实测两带发育高度作为因变量,煤层厚度、洛河组地层厚度、砂泥岩比等6个因素作为自变量,提出基于iTransformer-长短期记忆网络(Long-short term memory,LSTM)的矿井两带发育高度回归预测模型,该模型首先通过iTransformer模型提取各变量之间的依赖关系以及相关特征,随后输入后续的LSTM模型中,完成两带发育高度的多元回归;并在该模型的基础上,引入QR分位数模型,完成基于QR-iTransformer-LSTM模型的矿井两带发育概率区间预测。模型训练、验证和测试的结果显示,模型的训练集、验证集和测试集的平均绝对误差()范围为14.79~15.38 m,平均绝对百分比误差()范围为13.03%~39.26%,均方根误差()范围为18.89~23.29 m,决定系数()范围为95.47%~97.29%,预测结果较其他各模型有较大的提升。在iTransformer-LSTM模型的基础上引入QR分位数模型后,0.95和0.8分位点的预测区间覆盖率(prediction interval coverage probability,PICP)都为1,说明在0.8及以上的置信水平下预测结果都是可信的。研究发现QR-iTransformer-LSTM模型不仅具有iTransformer-LSTM模型优越的回归预测性能,同时超越了原模型的点估计预测模式,最后给出的预测结果为一个概率区间,模型的可信程度较高,能够有效的指导生产。研究结果可为矿区内地质条件相似的矿井开采两带发育高度预测提供新的方法,对矿井的防治水工作具有一定的现实意义。

    Abstract:

    The accurate prediction of the development height of the "two belts" in ji mine is of great significance for the prevention and control of mine water hazards and safe and efficient production. To construct a prediction model for the development height of the two zones of the mine roof in the western region that is threatened by the water hazard of the thick sandstone of the Luohe Formation, this paper takes a certain mine that is severely threatened by this kind of water hazard as the research object, and takes the measured development height of the two zones of the mine as the dependent variable, and six factors such as the thickness of the coal seam, the thickness of the Luohe Formation strata, and the ratio of sand, mud and rock as independent variables. A regression prediction model for the development height of two belts in mines based on iTransformer Long-short term memory(LSTM) is proposed. This model first extracts the dependency relationships and related features among various variables through the iTransformer model, and then inputs them into the subsequent LSTM model. Complete the multiple regression of the development height of the two zones, and on the basis of this model, introduce the QR quantile model to complete the prediction of the probability interval of the development of the two zones in the mine based on the QR-itransformer -LSTM model. The results of model training, validation and testing show that the mean absolute error () of the training set, validation set and test set of the model ranges from 14.79 to 15.38 m, and the mean absolute percentage error () ranges from 13.03% to 39.26%. The root mean square error () ranges from 18.89 to 23.29 m, and the coefficient of determination () ranges from 95.47% to 97.29%. The prediction results have been significantly improved compared with other models. After introducing the QR quantile model based on the iTransformer-LSTM model, the prediction interval coverage probability(PICP) of the 0.95 and 0.8 quantiles is both 1. It indicates that the prediction results are all reliable at a confidence level of 0.8 and above. The research finds that the QR-iTransformer-LSTM model not only has the superior regression prediction performance of the iTransformer-LSTM model, but also surpasses the point estimation prediction mode of the original model. The final prediction result given is a probability interval. The model has a high degree of credibility and can effectively guide production. The research results can provide a new method for predicting the development height of the two zones in mines with similar geological conditions within the mining area, and have certain practical significance for the water prevention and control work of the mines.

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刘譞,姬亚东,朱开鹏,等. ?基于QR分位-iTransformer-LSTM模型的矿井两带发育概率区间预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-31
  • 录用日期:2026-06-30
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