基于改进的频率比模型的新石器时期遗址预测: 以太湖流域为例
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P623

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国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3707801),国家自然科学(52078317),江苏省地质局2024年度地勘(2024-SGH006)


Prediction of Neolithic Sites Based on an Improved Frequency Ratio Model: A Case Study of the Taihu Lake Basin
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    摘要:

    太湖流域作为中国东南沿海地区的重要文化发源地,自新石器时代以来即孕育了丰富的人类活动遗存。以苏州市域为代表,综合利用遥感影像、地形数据及主要水文地貌因子,构建基于频率比(frequency ratio, FR)模型与最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型的考古遗址空间预测模型。为克服传统FR模型在因子加权方面的局限性,引入条件注意力机制构建改进型加权模型(AM_FR),对各环境因子敏感性进行量化赋权,并对其预测性能进行系统对比。结果表明:高程、地表起伏度和粗糙度是影响遗址分布的主要环境因子;AM_FR模型在训练与测试数据上的AUC(Area Under Curve)值优于传统FR与MaxEnt模型,表现出更优的拟合度与预测能力。结合重分类与栅格叠加分析,研究区内高概率区域主要分布于地势微高、近水资源丰富的滨湖缓坡地带,符合“择水而居、因地制宜”的聚落选址逻辑,并在构建模型指引下发现了新的遗址。研究成果不仅验证了机器学习方法在考古预测建模中的适用性,也为提升区域考古调查效率与文化遗产保护提供了技术支撑与方法借鉴。

    Abstract:

    The Taihu Lake Basin in southeastern China represents a crucial cradle of prehistoric civilization, having sustained extensive human occupation since the Neolithic period. An archaeological site predictive model was developed for the Suzhou area by integrating multisource geospatial data—including remote sensing imagery, topographic parameters, and hydro-geomorphic factors—within a combined frequency ratio (FR) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework. To address limitations in factor weighting inherent in conventional FR approaches, an innovative conditional attention mechanism was incorporated to construct an enhanced weighted model (AM_FR), which quantified the sensitivity of various environmental predictors and optimized their contributions. Model performance was systematically evaluated and compared using training and testing datasets. The results show that elevation, surface roughness, and relief intensity are the primary environmental determinants influencing site location. The AM_FR model achieves higher AUC (Area Under Curve) values on both training and testing datasets compared to standard FR and MaxEnt models, demonstrating superior fitting accuracy and predictive capability. Spatial overlay and reclustering analysis reveal that high-probability areas are predominantly distributed on gentle slopes near lakeshores with moderate elevations and reliable water access, consistent with the settlement principle of "adapting to habitat and leveraging natural advantages". Guided by the established model, a new site is discovered. The research results validate the effectiveness of machine learning methods in archaeological predictive modeling. The proposed AM_FR approach offers a scientifically sound methodology and technical framework for improving the efficiency of regional archaeological survey and cultural heritage conservation practices.

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吉加惠,李学文,王凯捷,等. 基于改进的频率比模型的新石器时期遗址预测: 以太湖流域为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(24): 10286-10296.
Ji Jiahui, Li Xuewen, Wang Kaijie, et al. Prediction of Neolithic Sites Based on an Improved Frequency Ratio Model: A Case Study of the Taihu Lake Basin[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(24):10286-10296.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-04
  • 录用日期:2026-01-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-02
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