多目标改进多元宇宙算法和多层级CNN-LSTM-Attention模型结合的长短期光伏功率预测
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TM615

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中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2023ZY0020);内蒙古自治区自然科学(2025SHZR2216);2024年重点实验室(内蒙古工业大学开放基金)(2024KF03);内蒙古自治区新型重要能源综合利用技术集成攻关大平台建设项目(2023PTXM001)


Long- and short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on the combination of multi-objective improved multivariate universe algorithm and multi-layer CNN-LSTM-Attention models
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    摘要:

    光伏发电的间歇性、多变性与随机性给电网一体化带来重大挑战。针对这一问题,提出一种结合卷积神经网络、长短期记忆和注意机制的组合预测模型CNN-LSTM-Attention(CLA),能够有效捕捉时间序列中的潜在规律。采用改进的多元宇宙优化算法优化LSTM参数,提升模型的预测能力和鲁棒性。值得一提的是,模型设计无需依赖复杂的数据预处理步骤,展现出良好的通用性和实用性。实验结果显示,该模型在预测精度和稳定性方面优于其他模型,其决定系数R2达到0.978,超过了传统模型0.032与 0.039,与最近开发的优化模型相比时,它分别比SSA-CL和DBO-CL模型高0.028和0.023,且误差明显小于其他模型。该方法在实际光伏发电预测中的应用潜力得到验证,为未来电网调度与运行提供了强有力的技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    The intermittent, variable and stochastic nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation poses a major challenge to grid integration. To address this problem, a combined prediction model CNN-LSTM-Attention (CLA) combining convolutional neural network, long and short-term memory and attention mechanism is proposed, which can effectively capture the potential patterns in time series. An improved multivariate universe optimization algorithm is used to optimize the LSTM parameters to enhance the predictive ability and robustness of the model. It is worth mentioning that the model design does not need to rely on complex data preprocessing steps, demonstrating good versatility and practicality. The introduced attention mechanism empowers the model to adaptively focus on key historical information, thus significantly improving the prediction accuracy. The experimental results show that the model outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability, with a coefficient of determination R2 of 0.978, which exceeds the traditional models of 0.032 and 0.039, and when compared with the recently developed optimization models, it is 0.028 and 0.023 higher than the SSA-CL and DBO-CL models, respectively, and the error is significantly smaller than that of the other [ ]models. The application potential of this method in real PV power forecasting is verified, providing a strong technical support for future grid scheduling and operation.

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党皓严,吴振奎,孙洋,等. 多目标改进多元宇宙算法和多层级CNN-LSTM-Attention模型结合的长短期光伏功率预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(24): 10424-10434.
Dang Haoyan, Wu Zhenkui, Sun Yang, et al. Long- and short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on the combination of multi-objective improved multivariate universe algorithm and multi-layer CNN-LSTM-Attention models[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(24):10424-10434.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-08-19
  • 录用日期:2026-01-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-02
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