基于长短期记忆网络和多头注意力机制的长期电力负荷预测
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TP311

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高速公路“源网荷储”微电网关键技术研究项目


Long-term Electrical Load Forecasting Based on LSTM and Multi-Head Attention Mechanism
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    摘要:

    在多能互补的高速公路能源供给模式中,精准掌握电力负荷变化规律是实现能源科学规划与精准动态调配的关键。为实现对电力负荷的长期精确预测,本文提出了一种结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory networks,LSTM)与多头注意力机制(multi-head attention, MHA)的预测模型。首先通过特征工程扩展输入特征的维度,增强模型对非线性关系的学习能力。然后构建LSTM网络建模电力数据的时序依赖特征,并引入MHA机制聚焦序列中的关键时间步信息,从而搭建完整MHA-LSTM电力负荷预测模型。最后以某地区的实际电力负荷数据为基础,设置实验验证了所提出模型的可行性。实验结果表明,所提出的MHA-LSTM模型平均绝对误差(MAPE)仅为3.23%,决定系数(R2)为0.8823,相对分析误差(RPD)为2.9142,与传统LSTM模型及引入简单注意力机制的LSTM模型对比具有显著提升,表明其在复杂时序的长期预测任务中具有较好的拟合效果和预测精度。

    Abstract:

    In multi-energy complementary highway energy supply systems, the understanding of electrical load variation is considered essential for scientific energy planning and accurate dynamic allocation. To improve the accuracy of long-term electrical load forecasting, a prediction model based on LSTM (long short-term memory) networks and a MHA (multi-head attention) mechanism is proposed.First, feature engineering was applied to expand the dimensionality of input features. Then, an LSTM network was built to model temporal dependencies in electrical load data. The MHA mechanism was added to highlight key time-step information in the sequence. These components were combined to form the MHA-LSTM forecasting model. Real electrical load data from a specific region were used to validate the model.The proposed model achieves a MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of 3.63%, an R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.8592, and an RPD (relative percent deviation) of 2.6650. Improved performance is shown compared to traditional LSTM and attention-based LSTM models. Strong fitting ability and high predictive accuracy are demonstrated for long-term forecasting with complex temporal patterns.

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徐小勇,邱晨依,陈高铭,等. 基于长短期记忆网络和多头注意力机制的长期电力负荷预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(20): 8728-8736.
Xu Xiaoyong, Qiu Chenyi, Chen Gaoming, et al. Long-term Electrical Load Forecasting Based on LSTM and Multi-Head Attention Mechanism[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(20):8728-8736.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-26
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-10
  • 录用日期:2026-01-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-27
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