基于演化博弈的绿色电力推广机制
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TM73

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52167015)。


Evolutionary Game-Based Mechanism for Green Electricity Promotion
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    摘要:

    为应对气候变化并推动可持续发展,本文基于演化博弈理论,构建了平台、发电公司和消费者三方互动的博弈模型,突破了传统双边博弈的局限,深入探讨了绿色电力市场的演化机制与均衡状态。研究首先明确了三方主体的策略选择及其收益函数,建立了复制动态方程和雅可比矩阵,分析了不同初始策略对演化路径的影响;然后,通过数值仿真模拟了绿色电力成本、平台激励强度和消费者偏好的变化对系统均衡的影响,揭示了平台激励政策、发电公司生产策略与消费者偏好之间的动态互动关系;最后,结合稳定性分析,探讨了系统达到理想均衡状态的条件。结果表明,绿色电力推广面临消费者行为转变的惯性阻力、绿色电力成本的敏感性和电力需求增长的规模悖论等关键障碍。可见,绿色电力市场的可持续发展需要在政策激励、市场机制与消费者行为之间实现有效协调。

    Abstract:

    In response to climate change and to promote sustainable development, this study constructs a game model based on evolutionary game theory involving the interactions of platforms, power generation companies, and consumers. The model breaks through the limitations of traditional bilateral game studies and explores the evolutionary mechanism and equilibrium state of the green electricity market. First, the strategies and payoff functions of the three parties are defined, and the replicator dynamic equations and Jacobian matrix are established to analyze the impact of different initial strategies on the evolutionary path. Then, numerical simulations are conducted to study the effects of changes in green electricity costs, platform incentive strength, and consumer preferences on the system's equilibrium, revealing the dynamic interactions between platform incentives, production strategies of power generation companies, and consumer preferences. Finally, stability analysis is used to discuss the conditions under which the system reaches an ideal equilibrium state. The results show that the promotion of green electricity faces key barriers, including the inertia resistance of consumer behavior changes, the sensitivity of green electricity costs, and the scale paradox of increasing electricity demand. These findings highlight that the sustainable development of the green electricity market requires effective coordination between policy incentives, market mechanisms, and consumer behavior.

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唐文星,尹喆,杨鹏飞,等. 基于演化博弈的绿色电力推广机制[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(20): 8692-8702.
Tang Wenxing, Yin Zhe, Yang Pengfei, et al. Evolutionary Game-Based Mechanism for Green Electricity Promotion[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(20):8692-8702.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-25
  • 录用日期:2026-02-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-27
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