基于残差项改进的VMD-LSTM短期电力负荷预测
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TM715

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Improved VMD-LSTM Based on Residual Term for Short-term Power Load Forecasting
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    摘要:

    电力负荷具有非线性、非平稳性以及多变特性,传统的时间序列预测方法无法充分捕捉数据的复杂特征及其演变规律。为了提高电力负荷预测精度,提出一种改进的VMD-EEMD-LSTM混合模型。该模型通过变分模态分解( variational mode decomposition, VMD)对历史电力负荷数据进行分解,得到不同频率下本征模态分量和残差项,再通过集合经验模态分解(ensemble empirical mode decomposition, EEMD)对VMD分解后残差项进行二阶分解,将VMD和EEMD分解所得各本征模函数(intrinsic mode function, IMF)处理后作为特征代入长短时记忆神经网络( long-term and short-term memory network, LSTM)模型进行预测,合并后可得总体预测结果。以江西某地区实际电力负荷数据为数据集进行对比实验,实验结果表明:VMD-EEMD-LSTM模型相较于VMD-LSTM模型,预测结果的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)和平均绝对误差(mean absolute error ,MAE)分别降低了56.57%和 56.03%。相较于EEMD-LSTM模型,预测结果的RMSE和MAE分别降低了10.06%和 9.01%,验证了提出的模型具有更高预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Power load features nonlinearity, non-stationarity and variability, so traditional time series forecasting methods cannot fully capture the complex characteristics of data and their evolution laws. To improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, an improved hybrid model of VMD-EEMD-LSTM is proposed. The model decomposes historical power load data through variational mode decomposition (VMD) to obtain intrinsic mode components and residual terms at different frequencies. Then, the residual terms after VMD decomposition are second-order decomposed through Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) obtained from VMD and EEMD decompositions are processed as features and input into the long-term and short-term memory network (LSTM) model for forecasting, and the overall forecasting results can be obtained after combination. Comparative experiments are carried out with the actual power load data of a certain area in Jiangxi as the data set. The experimental results show that compared with the VMD-LSTM model, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the prediction results of the VMD-EEMD-LSTM model are reduced by 56.57% and 56.03% respectively. Compared with the EEMD-LSTM model, the RMSE and MAE of the prediction results are reduced by 10.06% and 9.01% respectively, verifying that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy.

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刘薇. 基于残差项改进的VMD-LSTM短期电力负荷预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2026, 26(20): 8684-8691.
Liu Wei. Improved VMD-LSTM Based on Residual Term for Short-term Power Load Forecasting[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2026,26(20):8684-8691.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-24
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-21
  • 录用日期:2026-01-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-27
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