甘肃陇东地区潜在蒸散发时空变化的影响因素
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P426

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国家自然(42261003);甘肃农业大学寒旱区水文及水资源综合调控利用研究团队(GAU-XKTD-2022-08)


Influencing factors of temporal and spatial variation of potential evapotranspiration in Longdong, Gansu Province
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    摘要:

    研究陇东地区潜在蒸散发 ET0 时空变化及其对气候变化的响应,有利于探明气候变化对水文过程的影响。 基于陇东 地区 1984—2019 年气象资料,采用统计学及空间插值方法揭示 ET0 时空变化特征,结合定性与定量分析方法,探讨 ET0 与气象 因素的关系以及 ET0 对各气象要素变化的敏感性及贡献。 结果表明:陇东地区 ET0 呈显著上升趋势,线性变化率 3. 03 mm / a, 在 1993 年发生突变。 主成分分析发现,温度、湿度、辐射、动力等气象因素均对 ET0 产生影响,温度因素影响最大,动力因素影 响最小。 通径分析结果显示:日最高气温 Tmax 、日照时数 n 是影响 ET0 变化最主要因素,其次是相对湿度 RH、平均风速 u,降雨 量 P 对 ET0 变化影响最小。 ET0 对气象要素变化敏感性排序为 RH、Tmax 、n、u,RH 起反向作用,RH 减少对 ET0 增大影响最大, Tmax 、n、u 起正向作用,Tmax 、n、u 多年增加促使 ET0 增加。 ET0 增大的主要原因是 Tmax 升高,其次是 RH、u,对 ET0 增加贡献最小 为 n,4 种气象因素总贡献 24. 65% 。

    Abstract:

    Studying the temporal and spatial variations of potential evapotranspiration ET0 and its response to climate change in Longdong region is helpful to understand the effects of climate change on hydrological processes. Based on the meteorological data from 1984 to 2019 in Longdong region, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ET0 were revealed by statistical and spatial interpolation methods. The relationship between ET0 and meteorological factors, as well as the sensitivity and contribution of ET0 to the changes of meteorological factors were discussed by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. The results show that ET0 in Longdong region presents a significant upward trend, with a linear change rate of 3. 03 mm / a, and a sudden change occurred in 1993. Principal component analysis shows that meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, radiation and power all have an impact on ET0 , with temperature having the greatest impact and power having the least impact. Path analysis results show that daily maximum temperature Tmax and sunshine duration n are the most important factors affecting the change of ET0 , followed by relative humidity RH and average wind speed u, and rainfall P has the least influence on the change of ET0 . The sensitivity of ET0 to the change of meteorological factors is ranked as RH, Tmax , n, u. RH has a reverse effect, and the decrease of RH has the greatest effect on the increase of ET0 . Tmax , n, u have a positive effect, and the increase of Tmax , n, u over the years promotes the increase of ET0 . The main reason for the increase of ET0 is the increase of Tmax , followed by RH and u, and n contributes the least to the increase of ET0 . The total contribution of the four meteorological factors is 24. 65% .

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马亚丽,白祖晖,王兴繁. 甘肃陇东地区潜在蒸散发时空变化的影响因素[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2024, 24(36): 15345-15351.
Ma Yali, Bai Zuhui, Wang Xingfan. Influencing factors of temporal and spatial variation of potential evapotranspiration in Longdong, Gansu Province[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2024,24(36):15345-15351.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-07
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-20
  • 录用日期:2024-04-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-02