基于超效率DEA—信息量模型的沧源县地质灾害危险性评价
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成都理工大学

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P694

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四川省科技计划项目(2019YJ0505);青海省科技计划项目(2019-SF-130)


Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards in Cangyuan County Based on Super-efficiency DEA—Information Model
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Chengdu University of Technology

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    摘要:

    沧源县地处云南高原,该区域由于地质环境复杂多变,构造活动频繁,加之降雨等诱发因素的影响,成为了地质灾害多发区域,严重威胁人员生命与财产安全。为了综合评价研究区的地质灾害危险程度,选取高程、坡度、坡向、降雨量、断层距离、水系距离、道路距离、工程岩组8类评价因子,以研究区内192处地质灾害点作为样本,构建超效率DEA-信息量模型对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价,划分低、中、高、极高四个危险性分区,引入ROC曲线验证评价精度。评价结果显示,沧源县高、极高危险性分区占研究区总面积的54.2%,区内共分布有地质灾害点166处,占灾害点总数的86.5%,灾害点比与面积比的比值随着危险性的提高逐级递增,通过ROC曲线计算得到的AUC值为0.755。上述数据表明,基于超效率DEA-信息量模型的地质灾害危险性评价结果比较符合实际,评价精度较高,能够满足对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价的需要。

    Abstract:

    Cangyuan County is located in the Yunnan Plateau. Due to the complex and changeable geological environment, frequent tectonic activities, and the influence of precipitation and other inducing factors, this area has become an area with frequent geological disasters, which seriously threatens the safety of human life and property. In order to comprehensively evaluate the risk degree of geological hazards in the study area, eight evaluation factors including elevation, slope, slope aspect, rainfall, fault distance, water system distance, road distance, and engineering rock formation were selected, and 192 geological disaster points in the study area were used as samples to construct a The super-efficiency DEA-information model is used to evaluate the risk of geological disasters in the study area. The evaluation results show that the high and extremely high risk zones of Cangyuan County account for 54.2% of the total area of the study area. There are 166 geological disaster points in the area, accounting for 86.5% of the total number of disaster points. The ratio of disaster point ratio to area ratio With the increase of risk, the AUC value calculated by ROC curve was 0.755. The above data show that the evaluation results of geological hazard risk based on the super-efficiency DEA-information model are more realistic and have high evaluation accuracy, which can meet the needs of geological hazard risk evaluation in the study area.

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张凌煜,薛东剑,陈磊,等. 基于超效率DEA—信息量模型的沧源县地质灾害危险性评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-20
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-02
  • 录用日期:2022-05-13
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