基于新样本的滑坡坝溃决洪峰流量预测模型修正与对比
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P642

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0100100); 国家自然科学基金项目(41771045); 国家自然科学基金项目(41731283);中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目(2020)


Modification and Comparison of Flood Peak Discharge Prediction Model for Landslide Dam Failure Based on New Samples
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    摘要:

    受极端天气(强降雨)及高烈度地震的影响,高山峡谷区常发生滑坡堵江事件,形成具有明显“多漫顶,短寿命”特征的堰塞坝。堰塞坝溃决后,将形成具有强大破坏力的溃决洪水。溃决洪峰流量作为一个重要的水力参数,直接决定了下游灾害的影响程度。本文广泛收集了来自全球具有完整资料记载的67例滑坡坝溃决案例,扩充了已有的滑坡坝数据库,增加了数据样本区间,进而基于新数据库对已有滑坡坝溃决洪峰流量的参数预测模型进行了修正,并采用均方根误差(RMSE)和相关系数(R2)两个度量指标对比分析了各模型的预测效果,最后采用2018年在西藏江达县与四川省白玉县交界处发生的两次(10月10日和11月3日各一次)白格滑坡堰塞坝溃决事件对修正后的模型进行应用并对比。结果表明,修正模型的整体计算效果较修正前均有不同程度的提升,适用范围更广,但大部分模型因选取指标单一,未全面考虑水土耦合作用下复杂溃坝问题中的关键影响因子;经对比,Costa (1985)坝高Hd单参数模型(修正后RMSE和R2分别为61231.95 m3/s、0.0746)的计算自效果较差,建议优先选用Peng M模型(修正后RMSE和R2分别为6070.52 m3/s、0.9909)进行滑坡坝的溃决洪峰流量计算,其它模型可作为参考使用;该结论与白格堰塞湖溃决案例应用对比结果一致。研究成果可为滑坡坝的防灾减灾和应急抢险提供重要的理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Affected by extreme weather (heavy rainfall) and high intensity earthquake, river blocking events caused by landslides often occur in high mountain canyon area, forming a barrier dam with obvious characteristics of “more overtopping and short life”. After the landslide dam failure, a dam-break flood with strong destructive force will be formed. As an important hydraulic parameter, flood peak discharge directly determines the impact of downstream disasters. In this paper, 67 cases of landslide dam failure from the world with complete records are widely collected, the existing landslide dam database is expanded, the data sample interval is increased, and then the prediction model of the peak discharge of landslide dam failure is modified based on the new database. The mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R2) are used to compare and analyze the prediction effect of each model. Finally, the modified model was applied and compared by two landslide dam break events (one on October 10 and one on November 3)at the junction of Jiangda County in Tibet and Baiyu County in Sichuan Province in 2018. The results show that the overall calculation effect of the modified model is improved to varying degrees compared with that before the modification, and the scope of application is wider. However, most models do not fully consider the key influencing factors of complex dam failure problems under water-soil coupling due to the single selection index. After comparison, Peng M’s model (revised RMSE and R2 are 6070.52 m3/s and 0.9909, respectively) is preferred to calculate the peak discharge of landslide dam. Costa’s (1985) dam height Hd single parameter model (revised RMSE and R2 are 61231.95 m3/s and 0.0746, respectively) is not recommended, and other models can be used as reference. The conclusion is consistent with the application comparison results of Baige landslide dams failure cases. The research results can provide important theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency rescue of landslide dams.

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阮合春,陈华勇,李霄,等. 基于新样本的滑坡坝溃决洪峰流量预测模型修正与对比[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2022, 22(20): 8606-8615.
Ruan Hechun, Chen Huayong, Li Xiao, et al. Modification and Comparison of Flood Peak Discharge Prediction Model for Landslide Dam Failure Based on New Samples[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2022,22(20):8606-8615.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-01
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-15
  • 录用日期:2022-03-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-08-04
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