基于IFBN的高速铁路 突发事故应急决策模型
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

兰州交通大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

U238

基金项目:

甘肃省自然科学基金(20JR5RA398)


Emergency decision-making Model of sudden Accidents in High-speed Railway based on IFBN
Author:
Affiliation:

Lanzhou Jiaotong University

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    针对高速铁路突发事故应急决策初期信息不足且不确定的问题以及救援部门应急决策能力的局限性,本文提出了一种基于直觉模糊理论与贝叶斯网络推理相结合的应急决策方法。首先分析了高速铁路突发事件的诱因、事故分类及应急决策的特点和流程,然后利用直觉模糊数表示贝叶斯网络节点的证据信息,给出了直觉模糊贝叶斯网络(IFBN)应急决策模型。最后本文以动车组在高架桥突发火灾事故时进行应急决策为例分别用BN和IFBN进行推理。经过多组推理结果表明,当信息犹豫度较大时,BN推理会产生与实际情况相反的结论,而IFBN克服了此缺点,推理结果仍然准确,验证了利用IFBN推理模型进行应急决策的优越性。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem of insufficient and uncertain information in the initial stage of emergency decision-making of sudden accidents in high-speed railway and the limitation of emergency decision-making ability of rescue departments, this paper proposes an emergency decision-making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and Bayesian inference network. Firstly, the inducement, accident classification and emergency decision-making characteristics and process of high-speed railway emergency are analyzed., then the intuitionistic fuzzy number is used to represent the evidence information of Bayesian network nodes, and an intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian network (IFBN) emergency decision-making model is given. Finally, this paper takes the EMU for emergency decision-making in the case of a sudden fire accident on the viaduct as an example to reason with BN and IFBN respectively. After several groups of reasoning, it is found that when the information hesitation is large, BN reasoning will produce the opposite conclusion to the actual situation, but IFBN overcomes this shortcoming, and the reasoning result is still accurate, which verifies the superiority of using IFBN reasoning model to make emergency decision.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

赵涛,左静,尚梦星. 基于IFBN的高速铁路 突发事故应急决策模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-10-19
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-27
  • 录用日期:2022-04-30
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
×
关于近期《科学技术与工程》编辑部居家办公的说明
亟待确认的版面费信息