雷达测雨及临近预报在中小流域水文视角下的应用评估
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华北水利水电大学

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TV11

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国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510605);国家自然科学基金(51909274);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(JZ0145B032020)


Evaluation of the Application of Radar Rainfall Measurement and Nowcasting from the Hydrological Perspective of Small and Medium Watersheds
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North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

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    摘要:

    本文选取了2012年“苏拉”、2014年“海贝思”、2016年“尼伯特”三场台风在梅溪流域引发的三场不同类型降雨过程,探究了雷达测雨及临近预报在中小流域水文预报中的应用前景。采用24h累积雨量相对误差RE、时空两个维度均方根误差与相应维度均值的比值m-RMSE、平均绝对误差RMAE和平均偏差RMB等指标,基于地面雨量站的观测值评估雷达测雨以及1h、2h、3h预见期的集合临近预报,结果表明:雷达测雨总体上与地面雨量站观测值较为接近,不同类型降雨的RE值均在3%左右;时空分布均匀的降雨,临近预报效果优于短历时降雨和强降雨的临近预报效果,且随着预见期的延长,时空分布均匀的降雨预报效果更稳定,短历时降雨和强降雨的预报精度下降明显。因此,高时空分辨率的雷达测雨及临近预报在中小流域水文预报中有较好的应用前景,但短历时降雨和强降雨还需进一步研究。

    Abstract:

    This paper selects three different types of rainfall processes triggered by three typhoons in the Meixi Basin in 2012, “Saola”, 2014 “Hagibis”, and “Nepartak” in 2016, and explored the effects of radar rain measurement and nowcasting. Application prospects of hydrological forecasting in small and medium watersheds. Using 24h accumulated rainfall relative error RE, the ratio of the root mean square error of the two dimensions of time and space to the mean value of the corresponding dimension m-RMSE, the average absolute error RMAE and the average deviation RMB and other indicators, based on the observation value of the ground rainfall station to evaluate the radar rain measurement and 1h The results of ensemble nowcasting in the forecast periods of, 2h and 3h show that the radar rain measurement is generally close to the observation value of the ground rainfall station, and the RE values of different types of rainfall are all around 3%; rainfall with uniform temporal and spatial distribution has excellent nowcasting effects For short-duration rainfall and heavy rainfall nowcasting, and with the extension of the forecast period, the effect of uniformly distributed rainfall in time and space is more stable, and the forecast accuracy of short-duration rainfall and heavy rainfall is significantly reduced. Therefore, radar rain measurement and nowcasting with high temporal and spatial resolution have good application prospects in hydrological forecasting of small and medium watersheds, but short-duration rainfall and heavy rainfall need to be further studied.

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糜佳伟. 雷达测雨及临近预报在中小流域水文视角下的应用评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-29
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-26
  • 录用日期:2022-04-28
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