The carboniferous reservoir in Block J230 of Xinjiang Oilfields is a typical shallow low pressure sandstone reservoir, which has a middle depth of 620m, the formation pressure is 8.6Mpa, the average porosity is 7.26%, the permeability ranges from 0.01mD to 96.1mD and the average value is 1.14mD. In recent years, the area has undergone exhausted development tests of multi-stage fracturing and volume fracturing in horizontal wells, improving the initial oil production. Therefore, it is urgent to evaluate the long-term production performance of different fracturing methods. In this paper, a typical fracture element is constructed to simulate the oil well production under conventional multi-stage fracturing and volume fracturing treatment with the same amount of proppants. On the basis of the numerical results, the cumulative production of oil wells in 20 years and recovery degree can be predicted. The results indicate that the optimal fracturing methods are different in reservoirs with different permeability but the same amount of proppants. The volume fracturing is better when the permeability is less than 1mD, whereas the well production is higher with the conventional multi-stage fracturing when the permeability exceeds 1mD. Moreover, at the initial stage, the oil production rate of volume fracturing is higher than that of conventional multi-stage fracturing, and the advantage of volume fracturing gradually weaken with the production. For volume fracturing, the degree and area of reservoir reconstruction by fracture network dominates the long-term production of oil wells, and there is an optimal number of fracture clusters in reservoirs with different permeability. The carboniferous reservoir in Block J230 of Xinjiang Oilfields is recommended to be fractured mainly by conventional multi-stage fracturing and partially by volume fracturing in extremely low permeability area. The study in this paper can provides comprehensive insights into the optimization of fracturing methods in Carboniferous shallow low pressure reservoirs in western China.