降雨诱发泥石流危险性动态评价
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U416.1

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宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金(2020AAC03222);国家自然科学基金(4146201)。第一作者:田兴华(1985-),男,汉族,高级工程师,硕士生导师,主要从事岩土工程相关领域施工管理工作;xkx1257@foxmail.com。通讯作者:储怡鑫(1998-),男,汉族,硕士研究生,主要从事岩土工程领域的相关科研工作。


Dynamic evaluation of the risk of rainfall induced debris flow
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    摘要:

    本文深入分析影响泥石流危险性的因素,并构建了动态评价指标体系,运用层次分析法建立了不同降雨工况下动态权重系统,结合模糊综合评价法实现了对苏峪口泥石流危险性动态评价,据研究结果:随着降雨强度变化,指标权重呈现非线性动态变化特征,泥石流危险性对各危险等级的隶属度不断变化,表现为逐级升高。分析认为本文提出的泥石流危险性动态评价方法,在考虑降雨指标取值变化对评价结果影响的基础上,兼顾了指标权重对降雨工况的响应,评价结果相对传统方法更为精准,也更符合客观实际。

    Abstract:

    This paper deeply analyzes the factors affecting the risk of debris flow, and builds a dynamic evaluation index system, uses the analytic hierarchy process to establish a dynamic weight system under different rainfall conditions, and combines the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to realize the dynamic evaluation of the Suyukou debris flow risk. According to the research results: as the rainfall intensity changes, the index weights show nonlinear dynamic change characteristics, and the degree of membership of the debris flow hazard to each hazard level is constantly changing, showing a gradual increase. It is analyzed that the dynamic evaluation method for the risk of debris flow proposed in this paper takes into account the impact of the change in the value of the rainfall index on the evaluation result, and takes into account the response of the index weight to the rainfall conditions. The evaluation result is more accurate and more consistent than the traditional method Objective and practical.

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田兴华,朱厚影,韩静云,等. 降雨诱发泥石流危险性动态评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2022, 22(13): 5411-5416.
Tian Xinhua, Zhu Houying, Han Jinyun, et al. Dynamic evaluation of the risk of rainfall induced debris flow[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2022,22(13):5411-5416.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-08-13
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-01
  • 录用日期:2021-12-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-20
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