基于全生命周期与组合模型的蒸汽辅助重力泄油产油量与可采储量预测
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TE33+1

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国家重大科技专项


Research on Oil Production Rate and Recoverable Reserves Prediction of SAGD Process Based on Full Life Cycle and Combinatorial Model
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National Science and Technology Major Project

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    摘要:

    为了快速、准确地预测蒸汽辅助重力泄油(SAGD)开发方式下的产油量及可采储量,及时完成方案优化与生产调控工作,通过广义翁氏模型、Rayleigh模型、Weibull模型、Hubbert模型、HCZ模型、Maxwell模型等全生命周期模型进行预测研究,评估其适用性。基于SAGD不同开发阶段的产能计算公式,提出了SAGD分段产能公式回归预测模型,用其预测产油量及可采储量。为了提高预测精度,基于上述方法提出了组合预测模型。结果表明:对文中实例通过组合预测模型计算出的可采储量为30.67×10^(4)m^(3),SAGD开采单元的采收率可达64.4%。全生命周期模型及SAGD分段产能公式回归预测模型可较好的应用于预测SAGD开发油藏的产油量及可采储量,方法简单实用,可操作性强,而组合预测模型可进一步提升对应的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    In order to predict the oil production rate and recoverable reserves in reservoirs developed by SAGD process quickly and accurately, and complete the task of scheme optimization and production control on time, the full life cycle models, like generalized Weng’s model, Rayleigh model, Weibull model, Hubbert model, HCZ model and Maxwell model, were used to carry out corresponding predicting research, then their applicability were assessed. Considering the production capacity calculation formulas of SAGD at different stage of development process, a piecewise regression prediction model on the basis of production capacity formula was proposed to predict oil production rate and recoverable reserves. In order to improve the precision of prediction, the combinatorial prediction model was proposed based on above methods. The results show that the recoverable reserves calculated by combinatorial prediction model are 30.67×10^(4)m^(3), and the recovery factor of related SAGD pad could reach 64.4%, based on the example in this paper. It is concluded that the full-life cycle models and the piecewise regression prediction model on the basis of production capacity formula can be well applied to predict oil production rate and recoverable reserves in reservoirs developed by SAGD technique. These methods are quite simple, practical and feasible. The combinatorial prediction model can further improve the corresponding precision of prediction.

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余洋,刘尚奇,刘洋,等. 基于全生命周期与组合模型的蒸汽辅助重力泄油产油量与可采储量预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(36): 15434-15439.
Yu Yang, Liu Shangqi, Liu Yang, et al. Research on Oil Production Rate and Recoverable Reserves Prediction of SAGD Process Based on Full Life Cycle and Combinatorial Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(36):15434-15439.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-25
  • 最后修改日期:2021-10-09
  • 录用日期:2021-08-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-04
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