Accurate simulation of lake evaporation plays a key role in the prediction of the water level of Hengshui Lake.The evaporation of the Hengshui Lake was measured using water balance method from 2018 to 2020.A physical based model was developed to simulate lake exploration, in which the surface resistances and aerodynamic resistances of the water surface and the aquatic plants were used to describe the water vapor diffusion processes. The sensitivity of the meteorology, aerodynamic resistances, and lake surface resistance to the evaporation was analyzed using the Sobol method. Results showed that the Hengshui Lake evaporation was accurately simulated using the proposal model. The N-S efficiency coefficients were 0.744 and 0.687, respectively in the model parameters calibration and model verification stages. The contribution ratios of the radiation and the aerodynamic term to lake evaporation was 45.6% to 76.8%, and 23.2% to 54.4%, respectively. The first-order sensitivity Sobol index of the meteorology was 0.118, significantly higher than the mean of the sensitivity Sobol index of the resistances(0.028). The developed model can be used in the water level prediction of thehengshui lake for the early warning and ecological purpose.