基于长短期记忆网络和注意力机制的油井产油量预测
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TP391.9

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52074225);陕西省自然科学基金No.2019JM-174、No.2020JM-534)


Oil production prediction of oil wells based on LSTM and attention
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    准确地预测油井产油量在油田生产中至关重要,针对传统的线性预测方法存在适应性差的问题,以及在处理时序问题上难以很好拟合历史数据的问题,提出使用长短期记忆神经网络和注意力机制来解决数据中存在的时序关系以及增强模型的可移植性,并且分析了时间滞后、学习率衰减和神经元随机失活三个参数对油井产油量预测模型的影响,发现这三个参数分别为36、0.3和0.8时,模型表现最佳。使用最优参数建立油井产油量预测模型,并将该模型应用于XX油田的三口实验井数据上,其中井H3-32的后期实际产油总量为1470.5t,预测值为1442.33t,误差为1.92%;井H3-34的后期实际产油总量为1564.5t,预测值为1545.98t,误差为1.20%;井H3-35的后期实际产油总量为742.2t,预测值为772.12t,误差为4.05%。由此可见,基于长短期记忆神经网络和注意力机制的油井产油量预测模型的精度较高。本文研究成果可促进先进计算机技术在石油工业中的应用,对我国油田生产方案的制订和原油采收率的进一步提高具有非常重要的理论与现实意义。

    Abstract:

    It is an important problem that the oilfield can accurately predict the monthly oil production in the production process. The traditional linear prediction method has poor adaptability, and the machine learning method can’t be well applied to the time series data, and there are some important data missing in the monthly oil production data. Therefore, this paper proposes to use the random forest algorithm to fill in the missing values, and uses the long-term memory neural network (LSTM) to solve the time correlation in the data, and proposes to use the attention mechanism to enhance the influence of the important features of the data on the model, and adjusts the parameters from three aspects of time lag, learning rate attenuation and neuron random deactivation to select the optimal parameters The prediction model of monthly oil production is established. Taking an oilfield as an example, this paper uses attention mechanism and long-term and short-term memory neural network to model the monthly oil production of the oilfield, and compares it with linear regression, random forest, support vector regression, artificial neural network and single long-term and long-term memory neural network. The results show that compared with the single LSTM, the new network structure reduces MAPE of three wells by 15.5% - 51.9%, and predicts The trend is close to the original value. The model can be applied to practical development.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

潘少伟,郑泽晨,王吉哲,等. 基于长短期记忆网络和注意力机制的油井产油量预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(30): 13010-13015.
Pan shaowei, Zheng Zechen, Wang Jizhe, et al. Oil production prediction of oil wells based on LSTM and attention[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(30):13010-13015.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-14
  • 最后修改日期:2021-09-16
  • 录用日期:2021-08-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-10
  • 出版日期:
×
律回春渐,新元肇启|《科学技术与工程》编辑部恭祝新岁!
亟待确认版面费归属稿件,敬请作者关注