基于证据推理规则的给排水管道安全性评估
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TP182

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Safety Assessment of Water Supply and Drainagebased on Evidential Reasoning Rule
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    摘要:

    为解决目前给排水管道存在的高价值样本缺乏与安全性评估不合理等问题,本文提出一种基于证据推理规则的管道安全性评估方法。首先通过构建给排水管道安全性评估指标体系,根据专家知识和监测信息分别确定指标的初始权重和可靠度;其次,利用基于规则的转化方法将监测信息转换至统一的置信框架下,进而构建了完整的安全性评估模型。同时,针对部分模型参数依赖专家给定,采用基于Fmincom的优化算法对参数进行优化,求解得到最优参数。最后对某型给排水管道实例进行评估,并通过对比实验说明所提出方法的有效性。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problems of difficulty in obtaining failure data and unreasonable safety assessment of the water supply and drainage, this paper proposes a safety assessment method based on the evidential reasoning (ER) rule. Firstly, the safety assessment indicators are established, and the indicator weights and reliabilities are calculated based on the expert knowledge and observation information respectively; Then, the observation data are transformed into a unified belied framework by using the rule-based input information conversion methods, and a complete safety assessment model is further constructed. Meanwhile, due to some model parameters depend on experts, the optimization algorithm based on the Fmincom is utilized to optimize the parameters and the optimal parameters are obtained. Finally, an example of safety assessment of a certain type water supply and drainage is conducted, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through comparative experiment.

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韩晓霞,王杰,陈媛,等. 基于证据推理规则的给排水管道安全性评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(32): 13758-13764.
Han Xiaoxia, Wang Jie, Chen Yuan, et al. Safety Assessment of Water Supply and Drainagebased on Evidential Reasoning Rule[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(32):13758-13764.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-29
  • 最后修改日期:2021-09-14
  • 录用日期:2021-08-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-16
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