城乡结合部道路交通事故分布规律及其死亡预测模型研究
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1.昆明理工大学 交通工程学院;2.云南 昆明 650500

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U126

基金项目:

“基于多源异构大数据挖掘融合的高原公路交通风险多因素时空耦合识别及其控制技术研究—以云南高原地区为例”(61863019)第一作者胡立伟(1978—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为道路交通安全、交通运输规划与管理、驾驶人行为特性。E-mail: liweihukm@sina.com。 胡立伟,凌浩晗,田海龙,赵雪亭,尹宇


Study on the Distribution of Traffic Accidents and Prediction Models of Death Toll in Urban and Rural Areas
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Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    为提高城乡结合部道路交通安全,应准确识别城乡结合部道路交通事故致因,对其进行科学的评估。首先对云南省城乡结合部道路基础事故数据进行事故致因的提取,将事故分为死亡事故和一般受伤事故,其次将提取的事故致因进行编码,在二元Logistic回归分析中,引入主成分分析,构建城乡结合部交通事故死亡预测模型,分析不同影响因素对死亡事故发生的影响程度。与传统的logistic模型相比,模型预测精度提高了9.7%,减少迭代次数244次。分析结果表明,年龄、时间、车辆类型是导致城乡结合部道路发生死亡交通事故的主要因素,当司机年龄为20岁至30岁、时间为夜晚、车辆类型为小型货车、电动车时,城乡结合部交通死亡事故发生概率最高。该模型能够客观准确的对城乡结合部死亡交通事故进行预测评估。

    Abstract:

    To improve the traffic safety in the rural-urban continuum, it is necessary to be identified the parameters and made the evaluation of accident parameters accurately and scientifically. Firstly, the accident parameters were extracted from the accident data of the rural-urban continuum in Yunnan Province and the accident type was divided into death accident and injury accident. Secondly, the extracted accident parameters were coded. In binary logistic regression analysis, principal component analysis was introduced to build the prediction model of traffic accident death of the rural-urban continuum, and the influence of parameters on the occurrence of death accidents were analyzed. Compared with the traditional logistic model, the prediction accuracy of the model was improved by 9.7%, and the number of iterations is reduced by 244 times. The results show that driver"s age of, time and vehicle type are the main factors of the death accidents in the urban-rural continuum. When the driver"s age is 20-30 years old, the time is night, and the vehicle type is minivan or electric vehicle, the probability of the death accident is the highest in the urban-rural continuum. The model can objectively and accurately predict and evaluate the death traffic accidents in the rural-urban continuum.

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胡立伟,凌浩晗,田海龙,等. 城乡结合部道路交通事故分布规律及其死亡预测模型研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-29
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-10
  • 录用日期:2021-02-16
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