基于组合赋权-模糊综合评价的换流变火灾风险评估
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1.国网电力科学研究院有限公司;2.中国矿业大学(北京)

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X932

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本文受国家电网公司科技项目“大型充油设备泡沫细水雾涡扇炮智能灭火技术研究与应用”(8000-201918445A-0-0-00)资助。


Risk Assessment on Converter Fire Based on e Combination Weighting and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation
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State Grid Electric Power Research Institute

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    摘要:

    为全面客观评估换流变火灾风险,提出一种层次分析法和信息熵组合赋权,模糊综合评价计算的换流变火灾风险评估方法。根据相关法律法规并借鉴已有研究成果,充分考虑换流变火灾致灾因素特点(主要从绝缘性能、绝缘油特性、运行情况、附件情况、油箱、环境因素、消防设备7个方面进行分析),构建了由7个一级指标,27个二级指标构成的换流变火灾风险评估指标体系。利用层次分析法获取指标主观权重,信息熵获取指标客观权重,组合赋权以消除单一赋权方法造成的权重误差。采用岭型隶属度函数确定评估因素与火灾风险等级的模糊关系向量,最后通过模糊关系矩阵与组合权重向量的线性变换确定火灾风险等级。应用该方法对某换流变5个阶段进行实证评估,评估结果表明:该换流变有4个阶段火灾风险等级为I级,1个阶段火灾风险等级为Ⅱ级,此阶段存在薄弱项u1、u3、u4、u7,结果与实际运行情况相符,表明该方法适用于换流变火灾风险评估。

    Abstract:

    In order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the fire risk of converter transformer, a fire risk assessment method based on the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and entropy weight method and fuzzy mathematical calculation is proposed. According to the relevant laws and regulations and drawing on the existing research results, fully consider the characteristics of the hazard factors of the converter transformer fire (mainly from seven aspects of insulation performance, insulation oil characteristics, operating conditions, accessories, fuel tanks, environmental factors, fire equipment), Constructed an index system composed of 7 first-level indicators and 27 second-level indicators. The analytic hierarchy process is used to obtain the subjective weight of the index, the entropy weight method is used to obtain the objective weight of the index, and the weights are combined to eliminate the weight error caused by the single weighting method. A ridge-type membership function is used to determine the fuzzy relationship vector of the assessment factors and the fire risk level, and finally the fire risk level is calculated by the linear transformation of the fuzzy relationship matrix and the combined weight vector. Using this method to conduct an empirical evaluation of the five stages of a converter transformer, it is concluded that there are four stages of fire risk rating of I and one stage of fire risk rating of Ⅱ and this stage have weak item u1, u3, u4, u7. Result accords with the actual running situation, and show that the method is suitable for the converter fire risk assessment.

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罗剑飞,徐亮,陈光,等. 基于组合赋权-模糊综合评价的换流变火灾风险评估[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-30
  • 最后修改日期:2021-01-20
  • 录用日期:2021-01-21
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