C波段雷达快速循环同化技术在宁夏降水天气预报中的应用
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1.南京信息工程大学;2.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室;3.宁夏气象台;4.中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室

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P444

基金项目:

(41865008)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-083)、干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201810)和国家电网公司总部科技项目“微地形、微气象电网覆冰数值预测技术研究 ”共同资助


Applications of C-band Radar Rapid update Cycle Assimilation Technology in Precipitation Weather Forecast in Ningxia
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1.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions;3.Ningxia Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    本文介绍了宁夏C波段雷达快速循环同化技术及其在2018年夏季降水预报中的应用效果。快速循环同化技术主要基于天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model),通过对C波段多普勒雷达资料进行去除奇异点、地物遮挡、谱宽检查、退模糊等质量控制,利用三维变分同化、动力降尺度及冷暖启动方法,实现了C波段多普勒天气雷达观测数据的逐小时快速循环同化分析,可逐时滚动输出未来12小时逐小时间隔、水平分辨率3公里的降水、气温、风向风速、相对湿度、物理量场等格点预报产品以及雷达回波产品。通过在2018年宁夏降水预报中的应用分析发现,加入雷达资料同化后的WRF模式降水预报能力有明显提升,可为宁夏降水天气智能网格预报特别是暴雨的短临预报预警提供技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    This study introduces the rapid update cycle assimilation technique of C-band radar in Ningxia and its application to the rainfall forecast in the summer of 2018. The rapid cycling assimilation technology was mainly based on WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, and through quality control of C-band Doppler radar such as removing singular point, ground object occlusion, spectrum width inspection and radial velocity unfolding,by the using of the three-dimensional variational data assimilation, dynamic downscaling technology and cold-warm start method, the C-band radar data hourly rapid cycling assimilation analysis was achieved.It could produce grid-point prediction products hour by hour in next 12 hours include precipitation, temperature, wind, relative humidity, physical quantity fields and radar echo with a horizontal resolution of 3 km.Through the application analysis in the precipitation forecast of Ningxia in 2018, it is found that the precipitation forecasting ability of WRF model with radar data assimilation is improved obviously. It can provide the technical support for the forecast of intelligent grid, especially the short-term and imminent forecast of heavy rain in Ningxia.

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杨 侃,郭建茂,冯双磊,等. C波段雷达快速循环同化技术在宁夏降水天气预报中的应用[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2019, 19(22): 44-50.
Yang Kan,,,et al. Applications of C-band Radar Rapid update Cycle Assimilation Technology in Precipitation Weather Forecast in Ningxia[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2019,19(22):44-50.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-01-02
  • 最后修改日期:2019-04-13
  • 录用日期:2019-04-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2019-08-28
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