基于熵权法的飞机燃油流量全航程组合预测
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TP391.9

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航空基金资助(20151067003)。


Combined Prediction of Aircraft Fuelflow Based on Entropy Weight Method
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    摘要:

    在复杂的航班运行中,影响各飞行阶段的主要因素不尽相同。以当前使用范围较广的B737NG飞机所使用的快速存取记录器(Quick Access Recorder,QAR)的大量数据进行研究,将航段划分为巡航、爬升、下降等阶段,利用熵权法确定不同预测模型的权系数,建立全航程组合预测模型。利用Pearson相关性系数分析筛选建模数据,以平稳小波Rigorous SURE的方法对数据进行预处理、滤波去噪。针对BP神经网络(误差反向传播网络)在飞行状态复杂的下降及地面阶段预测效果不理想,引入回归模型进行修正。以熵值法确定动态权系数,即结合飞行阶段进行分段预测,以飞行参数为基础建立燃油流量(FF)的全航程组合预测模型。通过仿真分析,并选取航班中普遍且具代表性的情况验证预测模型的精确度,误差范围均在±3.5%内,证明该模型合理且具有较广的适用范围。

    Abstract:

    In the complicated flight operation, the main factors that affect the flight phases are different. Based on the large amount data of Quick Access Recorder (QAR) used by B737NG aircraft, the flight segment is divided into cruise, climb and descent stages. The weight coefficients of different prediction models are determined by entropy weight method, and the combined prediction model of the whole flight is established. Pearson correlation coefficients are used to analyze and filter the modeling data, and stationary wavelet Rigorous SURE is used to pre-process and filter the data. Regression model is introduced to modify BP neural network (BP neural network) for the complex decline of flight state and the unsatisfactory prediction effect at ground stage. Entropy method is used to determine the dynamic weight coefficient, that is, combined with the flight phase to predict the segment, based on flight parameters to establish a combined forecasting model of fuel flow (FF) for the whole flight range. Through simulation analysis, the accuracy of the prediction model is verified by choosing the common and representative situation in the flight. The error range is within 3.5%, which proves that the model is reasonable and has a wide range of application.

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陈 聪,麻嘉琦,王奕为,等. 基于熵权法的飞机燃油流量全航程组合预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2019, 19(7): .
CHEN Cong, MA Jia-qi, WANG Yiwei, et al. Combined Prediction of Aircraft Fuelflow Based on Entropy Weight Method[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2019,19(7).

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2018-12-10
  • 录用日期:2018-12-17
  • 在线发布日期: 2019-03-15
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