北京市需水量预测的系统动力学研究
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东华理工大学省部共建核资源与环境教育部重点实验室培育基地

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TV213.4

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东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104);东华理工大学省部共建核资源与环境教育部重点实验室培育基地开放基金项目(NRE1516);东华理工大学放射性地质与勘探技术国防重点学科实验室开放基金项目(RGET 1606)


System Dynamics Study on Water Demand Prediction in Beijing
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State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China Institute of Technology

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    摘要:

    利用系统动力学方法,对不同情景(保持现状型S1、经济发展型S2、南水北调型S3和综合发展型S4共四种情景)下北京市2012-2030年的需水量进行了预测,在此基础上对缺水问题进行分析。结果表明:(1)在四种情景下,生活需水量呈上升趋势,工业需水量在S1和S3下呈上升趋势而在S2和S4下呈下降趋势,农业需水量和环境需水量保持稳定,总需水量呈下降的趋势;(2)四种情景下,总需水量的平均值分别为41.87、43.85、42.03和43.96亿m3,缺水年平均缺水量分别为6.82、7.59、3.61和4.44亿m3,平均缺水指数分别为0.1592、0.1679、0.0833和0.0970;(3)为了维持经济、资源和环境的和谐、可持续发展,北京市需要增强人们节约、保护水资源的意识,才能保证水资源供需的长久平衡。

    Abstract:

    The water demands of Beijing under different scenarios (including business as usual scenario (S1), economic development scenario (S2), South-to-North Water Diversion Project scenario (S3) and comprehensive development scenario (S4)) from 2012 to 2030 were forecasted based on the system dynamics method and then the water deficit problem was analyzed. The results showed: (1) for the four scenarios, domestic water demands are on the rise, industrial water demands are on the rise under scenario S1 and S3 and are on the decline under scenario S2 and S4, agricultural water demands and environmental water demands keep stable, while the total water demands show a downward trend; (2) for the four scenarios, the average total water demand were 4.187, 4.385, 4.203, and 4.396 billion m3, respectively, the annual average water deficits for the water shortage years were 0.682, 0.759, 0.361, and 0.444 billion m3, respectively, while the average water deficit indexes were 0.1592, 0.1679, 0.0833 and 0.1592, respectively; (3) In order to ensure the rapid development of social economy and maintain water supply and demand balance and sustainable development, Beijing also needs more efforts to enhance the people’s awareness to protect water resources and save water. Only this can the long-term balance of water supply and demand be achieved in Beijing.

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秦欢欢. 北京市需水量预测的系统动力学研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2018, 18(21): .
Qin Huanhuan. System Dynamics Study on Water Demand Prediction in Beijing[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2018,18(21).

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  • 收稿日期:2018-02-08
  • 最后修改日期:2018-03-26
  • 录用日期:2018-04-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2018-07-30
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