中巴公路奥布段降雨型泥石流危险性评价
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新疆大学地质与矿业工程学院,新疆维吾尔自治区交通规划勘察设计研究院

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P642. 23

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国家自然科学青年基金(41602331);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2015015);中国博士后基金(2016M602951XB); 新疆交通厅科技项目(2015-2017)。


Hazard evaluation of rainfall-induced debris flows in the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway
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College of Geology DdDd Prospecting Engineering Program, Xinjiang University,

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    摘要:

    泥石流危险性评价是对泥石流制定合理防治措施的重要依据。以中巴公路奥依塔克至布伦口公路段沿线的26条降雨型泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外实地调查和遥感解译,选取平均比降、工程地质岩组、最大24 h降雨量、年平均气温、堆积扇面积、距断裂带距离、坡度、相对高差等8项指标作为基本评价因子,运用主成分分析方法对评价因子进行筛选和权重的确定,并通过灰色系统进行关联度计算,构建适合的泥石流危险性评价模型。评价结果表明:公路沿线降雨型泥石流沟多处于中高度危险等级,极高危险占11.54%,高度危险占19.23%,中度危险占57.69%,轻度危险占11.54%。研究成果与实际灾情基本吻合,说明该评价模型是合理可行的,可为中巴公路及其附近区域泥石流风险评估和选线定线提供科学依据和参考。

    Abstract:

    The hazard assessment of debris flow provides an important basis to establish reasonable prevention and control measures of debris flow. The 26 rainfall-induced debris flows along the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway are selected as the study object. Based on field investigation and remote sensing, 8 indicators influencing development of debris flow are selected as the basic evaluation factors, including average slope, engineering geological rock formation, maximum 24h rainfall, average annual temperature, accumulation fan area, distance from the fault zone, gradient, relative height difference. The principal component analysis method is used to carry out evaluation factor screening and determination of the weights, and correlation degree is calculated by the grey system, further a suitable model for debris flow hazard assessment is built. The evaluation results show that rainfall-induced debris flows along the highway are in moderate-high hazard levels, with very high hazard of 11.54% , high hazard of 19.23%, medium hazard of 57.69% and lighthazardof11.54%.Research results are consistent with the actual situation, and show that the evaluation model is feasible. So the evaluation model can provides scientific basis and guidance for debris flow hazard assessment and route alignment along and near KKH.

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引用本文

邓恩松,魏学利. 中巴公路奥布段降雨型泥石流危险性评价[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2018, 18(3): .
Deng Ensong and. Hazard evaluation of rainfall-induced debris flows in the Aoyitake-Bulunkou section of Karakoram Highway[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2018,18(3).

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  • 收稿日期:2017-06-20
  • 最后修改日期:2017-09-11
  • 录用日期:2017-09-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2018-02-27
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