基于离散灰色模型的优化方法研究
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四川大学,西安卫星测控中心,西安卫星测控中心

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中图分类号:

TP306

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Study of Optimization Method Based on Discrete Grey Model
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Xi’an Satellite Control Center,Xi’an Satellite Control Center

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    为了改进离散灰色模型的预测精度,本文对离散灰色模型进行了修正,建立了离散灰色优化模型。离散灰色优化模型的核心在于对1阶累加生成序列(first order-accumulating generator operator (1-AGO) sequence)的平移变换。其中,最佳平移值可以通过最优化方法得到。算例的对比结果显示,DGOM(1,1)模型的模拟精度高于DGM(1,1)模型的模拟精度。进一步的研究表明,将DGOM(1,1)模型与其他优化模型相结合,可以使模型的模拟精度更高。文中讨论了DGOM(1,1)模型的特征,包括平移变换提升模拟精度的机理、DGOM(1,1)模型与其他优化模型之间的关系等。本文的工作丰富了灰色预测理论,并且提出了一些新的灰色预测模型。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of discrete grey model (DGM), a new modified DGM(1,1) model called discrete grey optimization model (DGOM) is created. The key of this model is a parallel transformation which is applied to the first order-accumulating generator operator (1-AGO) sequence. And the optimal parallel value c can be obtained based on the optimization method. The contrasted result of a numerical example shows that DGOM(1,1) yields a more accurate prediction capability than DGM(1,1) does. Integrating with other improved models such as optimized starting-point fixed discrete grey model and residual modified model, DGOM(1,1) can be characterized by even more accurate prediction for the grey modeling. Moreover, the mechanism of the parallel transformation to improve the forecasting precision and the relationship between DGOM(1,1) and another optimization of DGM are also discussed to demonstrate the characteristics of DGOM(1,1) more clearly. This work contributes significantly to improve grey forecasting theory and proposes more novel grey forecasting models.

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引用本文

杨悦,黄明,杨永安. 基于离散灰色模型的优化方法研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2013, 13(26): .
YANG Yue, HUANG Ming, YANG Yong-an. Study of Optimization Method Based on Discrete Grey Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(26).

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  • 收稿日期:2013-05-19
  • 最后修改日期:2013-05-19
  • 录用日期:2013-06-14
  • 在线发布日期: 2013-08-12
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