我国区域发展不平衡与宏观经济关系实证研究
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Regional development is not balanced and macro economic relations empirical research
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    摘要:

    本文构造了一个新的度量区域发展不平衡的指标,并运用Moore结构变动指数算出区域不平衡波动指标,在1978-2009年数据的基础上,从不平衡水平和波动两个角度研究了我国的区域发展不平衡与宏观经济的关系。分析结果显示我国区域不平衡与经济总量存在协整关系,格兰杰因果关系检验结果显示经济总量的扩张加剧了区域不平衡,而区域不平衡并没推动经济增长;宏观经济波动也导致了区域不平衡的波动,而区域不平衡并不是宏观经济波动的冲击源。本文印证了国家“十二五”规划将经济增长目标适度放缓,以推进区域协调发展、提高经济发展质量的合理性。

    Abstract:

    This paper constructs a new measure of the imbalance of regional development index, and use of Moore structural change index calculate area not balance in the 1978 index, fluctuations in 2009 based on the data of the equilibrium level and fluctuation, never two perspective China's regional development is not balanced and macro economic relationship. The results show that China's regional imbalance and total economic output cointegration relationship, granger causality test results show that the total amount of economic expansion increased regional imbalance, and regional imbalance and didn't promote economic growth; Macro economic fluctuation is also leading to a regional imbalance fluctuations, and regional imbalance and not the volatility of the macro economic impact source. This paper proved the country “125”planning will moderate slowdown in economic growth target, so as to promote the coordinated development of regional economic development, improve the quality of rationality.

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引用本文

李恒. 我国区域发展不平衡与宏观经济关系实证研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2011, (27): .
liheng. Regional development is not balanced and macro economic relations empirical research[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2011,(27).

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2011-06-15
  • 最后修改日期:2011-06-21
  • 录用日期:2011-06-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2011-08-09
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