基于贝叶斯网络的路网失效程度评估方法研究
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U491.1

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国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)


The traffic network failure degree approach method research based on Bayesian network
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The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)

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    摘要:

    创造性的将贝叶斯网络应用于路网失效的评估中。选择连通可靠性作为评价标准,运用实例分析的方法,对基于贝叶斯网络的路网失效程度评估方法进行了研究。通过对路网的失效成因进行分析建立路网失效对应的事件树与故障树,并引入故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的算法,提出了利用贝叶斯网络对城市路网的失效程度进行评估的方法。最后举出一个简单的路网实例,按上述方法对其建立了其路网失效的贝叶斯网络,并利用MSNBX软件对该路网遭遇不同类型攻击时的失效情况进行了模拟计算,得到了实例路网的失效程度。实验结果证明了文中所探讨的方法的有效性,并为贝叶斯网络在大规模路网研究中的应用提出了一些思考和建议。

    Abstract:

    Apllying the Bayesian network in the traffic network failure degree approach in a creative way.By using the method of empirical study,this paper does research on the traffic network failure degree approach based on Bayesian network with the evaluation index of connectivity reliability.The paper conclude the method of the traffic network failure degree quantification based on bayesian network by analysising the cause of traffic network failure, establishing the event tree and fault tree and then buliding the Bayesian network with the algorithm of transforming event tree and fault tree to Bayesian network.Finally, The paper cite a simple example of the road network, according to the above-mentioned method, establish the Bayesian network of road network failure and use the software MSNBX to simulate the different types of attacks, then get the result to prove the validity of the method that had been mentioned in the paper and give some advise to the application of bayesian network in research on large scale traffic network.

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引用本文

黄晶. 基于贝叶斯网络的路网失效程度评估方法研究[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2010, (9): .
Huang Jing. The traffic network failure degree approach method research based on Bayesian network[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2010,(9).

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  • 收稿日期:2009-12-17
  • 最后修改日期:2010-01-03
  • 录用日期:2009-12-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2010-03-26
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