基于随机森林的城市建筑火灾风险等级评估方法
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X913;

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北京市属高校高水平创新团队建设计划项目(IDHT20190506);北京市教委科技计划重点项目(KZ201810016019)


Evaluation Method of Urban Building Fire Risk Level Based on Random Forest
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High-level innovative team building project of Beijing-affiliated colleges and universities (IDHT20190506); Beijing Municipal Education Commission Science and Technology Plan Key Project (KZ201810016019)

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    摘要:

    为实现城市建筑火灾风险智能量化评估,并解决消防资源优化配置问题,本文提出一种基于随机森林算法的城市建筑火灾风险等级评估方法。该方法框架由评估模型构建、火灾风险等级确定、特征重要性分析三部分组成,本文首先基于随机森林算法和城市火灾特征数据建立火灾风险分数评估模型,对火灾风险进行数值化评估;然后结合城市火灾防控实际和风险分数,确定地块建筑的火灾风险等级,并挖掘风险等级与建筑物性质之间的关系;在此基础上通过特征重要性算法FI(Feature Importance),对火灾风险因子进行分析,挖掘出高影响因子的火灾隐患特征,以指导消防管理人员提高消防检查效率。本文以美国迈尔斯堡的历史火灾数据作为实验数据,建立了该城市的火灾风险评估模型,对城市建筑的火灾风险等级进行了量化分析。在上述成果基础上,本文设计开发了交互式消防热点风险地图,以方便相关人员快速确定地块建筑火灾风险,并据此调整消防检查的策略以及人力物力资源的分配。

    Abstract:

    In order to realize intelligent quantitative assessments of urban fire risks and implement optimal allocation of fire resources, a random forest algorithm-based fire risk assessment method for urban buildings is proposed. The methodological framework is composed of three parts. Firstly, a fire risk score assessment model using the random forest algorithm was developed. The model is based on fire characteristic data of the Milesburg city in the United States, to numerically assess fire risks of buildings in the city. And then, fire risk levels of buildings were determined according to building types and the risk score, and relationships between the risk level and building properties were explored. In addition, a feature importance algorithm FI (feature importance) was designed to analyze fire risk factors and mine fire hazard characteristics with high impact factors, so as to guide the fire authority to enhance their work efficiency. Finally, interactive fire hotspot risk maps were designed and developed to facilitate the fire authority to quickly determine fire risks of an area or a building in the city, and accordingly improve fire inspection strategies and optimize allocation schemes of human and material resources.

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方硕,魏东,冉义兵. 基于随机森林的城市建筑火灾风险等级评估方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2022, 22(1): 429-437.
Fang Shuo, Wei Dong, Ran Yibing. Evaluation Method of Urban Building Fire Risk Level Based on Random Forest[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2022,22(1):429-437.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-29
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-10
  • 录用日期:2021-08-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-11
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