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张晓东,刘乃静,赵银鑫,等. 银川市2000—2020年土地利用时空变化特征及预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(24): 10156-10164.
Zhang Xiaodong,Liu Naijing,Zhao Yinxin,et al.Research on spatial and temporal variability characteristics and prediction of land use in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2020[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(24):10156-10164.
银川市2000—2020年土地利用时空变化特征及预测
Research on spatial and temporal variability characteristics and prediction of land use in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2020
投稿时间:2021-03-15  修订日期:2021-06-09
DOI:
中文关键词:  土地利用  景观变化特征  CA-Markov模型  驱动力  银川市
英文关键词:land use  landscape variability characteristics  CA-Markov model  driving factors  Yinchuan city
基金项目:宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金项目(2019AAC03444);宁夏回族自治区财政厅财政专项“银川都市圈城市地质调查项目”(宁财(预)发[2017] 320号)第一作者张晓东(1980-),男,博士,高级工程师,主要从事环境遥感应用研究工作。Email33131692@qq.com
                    
作者单位
张晓东 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
刘乃静 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
赵银鑫 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
张勇 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
马风华 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
武丹 宁夏回族自治区遥感测绘勘查院宁夏遥感中心
刘海燕 宁夏回族自治区地质调查院
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中文摘要:
      为掌握银川市土地利用的时空变化特征,以2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据为基数,利用土地利用变化模型和景观生态学方法定量研究了2000—2020年间银川市土地利用景观格局变化特征,并采用CA-Markov模型对研究区土地利用变化进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)20年间,耕地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积减小,草地和城乡工矿居民用地面积增加,各土地利用类型之间转换较为强烈,土地利用变化结构的主体为草地和城乡工矿居民用地,土地利用程度综合指数增加了23.35,土地利用程度不断加深但具有区域差异性特征。(2)土地利用景观形状的复杂程度增加,城市空间不断扩张,整体景观都趋于平均,景观异质程度增强,景观向多样化方向发展趋势。(3)CA-Markov模型能有效模拟银川市土地利用变化情况且具有较高精度,Kappa系数为0.8285;2030年耕地、林地和未利用土地面积减少,草地和城乡工矿居民用地面积增加。(4)人口数量与结构、GDP、经济增长以及区域宏观政策是研究区各类土地利用类型变化的主要驱动因素。研究区土地利用整体处于快速发展时期,受人类活动影响景观空间格局变化明显,研究结果对于银川市土地资源的科学规划管理及生态可持续发展提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Land resources are the link between human social economic activities and natural ecological processes. In order to know well the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use in Yinchuan City, based on land use data of three periods (2000, 2010 and 2020 year) which interpreted from Landsat images. Employing LUCC analyzing models such as intensity of land use change, dynamic degree of land use, land use degree and landscape ecological method, spatial and temporal variability characteristics of landscape pattern of land use in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed, and then land use patterns were simulated and predicted in 2020 and 2030 using CA-Markov model respectively. The results showed that: (1) During 20 years, the area of farmland, forest land, water and unused land decreased, and area of grass land and urban and rural construction land increased. Different type of land use converted intensely, the principle parts of land use change structure were grassland and urban and rural construction land, and the land use degree increased 23.35, which presented the degree of land use were deepening gradually with regional characteristics. (2) The complexity of landscape shape increased with urban space expanding continuedly, the overall landscape tends to be uniformity, the landscape heterogeneity was increasing and diversity was enhancing. (3) CA-Markov model could simulate the land use variation with high accuracy, which Kappa coefficient was 0.8285. And the areas of farmland, grassland and unused land would be decreased, and the area of grassland and urban and rural construction land would be increased in 2030. (4) Population size and structure, GDP and economical invest, and regional macro policies were main driving factors of land use structure adjustments and changes in Yinchuan. The overall land use in Yinchuan city was in a rapid development period, and the landscape space pattern was significantly affected by human activities, the study could provide scientific evidence for scientific planning management and ecological sustainable development of land resources of Yinchuan.
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