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牟振华,闫康礼,陈艳艳,等. 高铁提速情景下出行者“空铁抉择”的动态演化博弈[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(8): 3365-3371.
mou zhen hua,et al.Dynamic evolution game of traveler's “choice of HSR-Air” under the scenario of HSR speed-up[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(8):3365-3371.
高铁提速情景下出行者“空铁抉择”的动态演化博弈
Dynamic evolution game of traveler's “choice of HSR-Air” under the scenario of HSR speed-up
投稿时间:2020-06-06  修订日期:2020-10-15
DOI:
中文关键词:  综合运输  高铁提速  Logit动态模型  空铁博弈
英文关键词:integrated transportation  high-speed rail (HSR) speed-up  Logit dynamic model  the game between HSR and Air
基金项目:教育部人文社科(19YJC630124); 山东省研究生教育质量提升计划项目(SDYKC18081)
                 
作者单位
牟振华 山东建筑大学
闫康礼 山东建筑大学
陈艳艳 北京工业大学
李想 山东建筑大学
申栋夫 山东建筑大学
李克鹏 山东建筑大学
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中文摘要:
      为了探究高铁提速情况下用户出行选择高铁和民航动态适应过程,基于效用理论构建了出行方式博弈收益矩阵,建立了基于Logit动态的交通方式选择演化博弈模型,并对模型的平衡点和演化稳定性以及参数取值进行了分析。以京沪OD点对间的高铁、民航行程时耗与票价作为参照基准,将收益函数进行了时间均一化转换,设定了两种高铁提速情形,并对其价值收益进行对比分析。基于数值仿真探讨了出行者“空铁抉择”的动态演化过程以及提速背景下竞争区间的变化。结果表明:高铁提速会吸引更多出行者,在400公里/h和600公里/h两种提速情形下其分担率上升至58.31%和72.73%,同时高铁运行速度提高会使空铁激烈竞争区间向更远的出行距离扩展。
英文摘要:
      In order to explore the dynamic adaptation process of traveler’s choice of high-speed rail (HSR) and air in the case of HSR speed-up. A game payoff matrix of travel mode was constructed based on utility theory, and an evolutionary game model of transportation mode choice based on logit dynamic was established. Then static equilibrium, evolutionary stability and parameter analysis of the model were studied with the mathematical analysis. Travel duration and ticket price of HSR and air between OD points in Beijing-Shanghai as a benchmark, the payoff function was transformed into time homogenization. Two scenarios of HSR speed-up were set up and the value benefit was contrastively analyzed. Based on the mathematical simulation, the dynamic evolutionary process of travelers’ “choice of HSR-Air” and the change of competition range under the background of HSR speed-up were discussed. The result indicates that the HSR speed-up will attract more travelers, and its share rate will rise to 58.31% and 72.73% under the HSR speed-up of 400 km/h and 600 km/h. At the same time, the increase of HSR running speed will make the intense competition area of HSR-Air expand to the farther travel distance.
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