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邱 茂,董建辉,赵建军,等. 基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测-以尖山营古滑坡复活为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 20(30): 12361-12366.
QIU Mao,赵建军,et al.Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis-- A Case Study of Revival of Jianshanying Ancient Landslide[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(30):12361-12366.
基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测-以尖山营古滑坡复活为例
Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis-- A Case Study of Revival of Jianshanying Ancient Landslide
投稿时间:2020-02-27  修订日期:2020-07-29
DOI:
中文关键词:  古滑坡  位移预测  时间序列  灰色理论  AR模型
英文关键词:ancient landslide  displacement prediction  time series  grey theory  AR model
基金项目:黔科合支撑项目([2017]2814);黔科合平台人才项目([2017]5402);成都大学引进人才启动项目(2081917010)
                 
作者单位
邱 茂 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室
董建辉 成都大学
赵建军 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室
谢飞鸿 成都大学
朱要强 贵州省地质环境监测院
邹银先 贵州省地质环境监测院
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中文摘要:
      为了深入研究滑坡位移的特点,以尖山营古滑坡复活为例,基于时间序列加法模型,结合尖山营古滑坡的复活背景,将古滑坡位移分解为趋势项与周期项。对趋势项位移使用等维新息灰色(1,1)(GM(1,1))模型进行分析,并提取周期项位移,建立一阶自回归(A R)模型对周期项进行预测。将两者预测结果相加,即可得到古滑坡预测总位移。结果表明:预测与实测值误差较小,模型精度较高,能够较好的描述尖山营古滑坡的位移特征,可用于古滑坡后续的监测预报预警中,具有一定的理论研究与工程价值。
英文摘要:
      In order to deeply study the characteristics of landslide displacement, taking the revival of Jianshanyinggu landslide as an example, based on the time series addition model, combined with the revival background of Jianshanyinggu landslide, the ancient landslide displacement is decomposed into trend term and period term.The displacements of trend items were analyzed by using the equal-dimension grey model (1,1) (GM (1,1)), and the displacements of periodic items were extracted. The first-order auto regression model (AR model) was established to predict the periodic items.The total predicted displacement of ancient landslide can be obtained by adding the two predicted results.The error between the predicted result and the measured value is small, and the model accuracy is high, which can better describe the displacement characteristics of Jianshanying ancient landslide, and can be used in the follow-up monitoring, forecasting and warning of ancient landslide, which has certain theoretical research and engineering value.
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