Abstract:Using data of Ensemble Prediction System of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES-EPS), which was the ensemble prediction system of China Meteorology Administration (CMA) and had 15 ensemble members, and in the basis of existing line galloping meteorological model, line galloping was predicted in both November 2016 and January 2018 by using the wire ice data with the relative models, that was, equally-weighted method and ensemble-averaged method. The results show that: (1) both equally-weighted method and ensemble-averaged method could predict the possibility of occurring and developing of line galloping, and the site and time of galloping which are predicted by both two methods are coincided with the observation data; (2) the ratio of stations which are correctly predicted is higher and that of stations which are failed forecasted is lower by using equally-weighted method, by compared with ensemble-averaged method ; (3) from the view of maximum and average of daily line galloping predicted by the two methods, those are predicted by equally-weighted method are larger than that are predicted by ensemble-averaged method; (4) from view of the spatial distribution predicted by the two methods, the line galloping probability predictions have the certain continuity by using equally-weighted method, while the distributions are obviously jumping by using ensemble-averaged method; from the view of time variation, the line galloping predicted by equally-weighted method are changing with time, while the line galloping predicted by ensemble-averaged method are jumping with time variation. That is, in comparison with the galloping predicted by ensemble-averaged method, the line galloping predicted by equally-weighted method is closer to the observation and has better effect in line galloping prediction.