一次冻雨过程的云微物理过程分析、模拟和预测
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Analysis, Simulation, and Prediction on the Cloud Microphysics of a Freezing Rain Episode
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    摘要:

    冻雨是一种对交通、电网以及人民生活带来严重影响的小概率灾害性天气。本文通过对2018年1月25日- 26日中国南方大面积冻雨的天气形势、云微物理量变化的分析,探讨了本次大范围冻雨天气形成的气象条件,进而利用耦合了改进Ramer参数化方案的WRF模式,对本次冻雨过程进行预报并评估了其预报能力,得到了如下结论:1)冷干与暖湿气流在贵州-湖南-江西一带形成来回摆动的高空切变线,逆温层出现,地面温度小于0℃,天气形势有利于冰冻天气出现。2)冻雨形成必须同时满足三个气象条件:一定厚度的暖层、较高的液水含量和地面温度低于0℃。在一次完整的冻雨过程中,气象要素并不能总是满足上述三个条件,因而一次冻雨过程并不一定是连续的,期间往往夹杂着降雨或降雪事件的出现。3)耦合改进Ramer参数化方案的WRF模式对冻雨有很好的预报能力,平均TS评分达到了0.52。该研究对冻雨预报有较大的参考价值,并为交通、电网的防灾减灾提供了坚实的理论支撑。

    Abstract:

    The freezing rain is a low-probability disastrous weather, which can cause severe impact on the transportation, the power system, and the civilization. By analyzing the synoptic situation and the variation of cloud microphysics factors during the freezing rain episode during January 25th~26th, 2018, the weather conditions for this freezing rain episode is investigated. By adopting the numerical WRF model coupled with the improved Ramer parameterization scheme, the prediction of this episode is casted and examined in this study. The conclusions are as follows: 1) An oscillating shear line is formed in the upper air over the Guizhou-Hunan-Jiangxi region by the interaction of the warm wet air and the cold dry air. A thermal inversion layer is formed, and the surface temperature is lower than 0℃, ensuring a favorable weather condition for the freezing rain. 2) Three meteorological criteria must be met for the freezing rain formation: a warm layer of certain thickness; a high enough liquid water concentration; and the surface temperature lower than 0℃. During a freezing rain episode, the three meteorological criteria may not be satisfied all the time, thus it may be discontinuous, with raining or snowing mingled in it. 3) The WRF model coupled with the improved Ramer parameterization scheme performs well in the freezing rain prediction. The average TS score has reached 0.52 for this episode. The present research has important value for the study on freezing rains, and is providing a valid theorical support for the disaster prevention and reduction of the transportation and power system.

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李哲,陆正奇,王津宇,等. 一次冻雨过程的云微物理过程分析、模拟和预测[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(1): 403-409.
Li Zhe, Lu Zhengqi, Wang Jinyu, et al. Analysis, Simulation, and Prediction on the Cloud Microphysics of a Freezing Rain Episode[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2021,21(1):403-409.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-01-15
  • 录用日期:2020-05-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-02-04
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