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董 敏,邵 荃. 基于改进的贝叶斯网络的机场外来物风险评估方法[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 20(30): 12644-12650.
Dong Min.Research on Airport Foreign Object Debris (FOD) Risk Assessment[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(30):12644-12650.
基于改进的贝叶斯网络的机场外来物风险评估方法
Research on Airport Foreign Object Debris (FOD) Risk Assessment
投稿时间:2019-09-18  修订日期:2020-08-02
DOI:
中文关键词:  机场外来物  风险评估  贝叶斯网络  灰色马尔可夫
英文关键词:airport FOD  risk assessment  Bayesian Network  Grey-Markova
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目资助(2018YFC0809500)、国家自然科学基金项目资助(71573122,71874081)
     
作者单位
董 敏 Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
邵 荃 南京航空航天大学民航学院
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中文摘要:
      为了减少机场机场外来物(foreign object debris,FOD)的风险,辨别了机场外来物的风险源,分析了机场FOD的危险性,提出了一种针对机场外来物的风险评估模型。该模型通过贝叶斯网络和灰色马尔可夫的方法分别估算跑道和机坪的FOD事故概率,然后结合事故的危险性分析结果,得到了机场外来物的风险值。最后以澳大利亚机场和中国某机场为例,检验了风险评估模型的可行性。 发现跑道FOD的风险比机坪和滑行道FOD的风险高,结果与美国联邦航空局(FAA)一致,证明了风险评估模型是可靠的。
英文摘要:
      In order to reduce the risk of airport FOD (foreign object debris) and identify the sources of FOD, risks, severities of consequences of airport FOD were analyzed, and a model for evaluating the risk of airport FOD was established. Via the Bayesian Network and the Grey-Markov method, the probabilities of occurrences caused by runway and apron FOD were calculated respectively. Then, considering the analysis results of occurrences severities, this model could helps obtain the risk values of airport FOD. Finally, Australia airports and some Chinese airport were taken as examples to validate the feasibility of the risk assessment model. The risk of runway FOD is found to be higher than the risk of the apron FOD and the risk of the taxiway FOD. The result is consistent with that of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which proves that the risk assessment model is reliable.
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