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王充,燕宁娜,李超超,等. 固原市原州区近60 a降水变化特征分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 20(20): 8043-8049.
wangchong,燕宁娜,李超超,et al.Analysis of precipitation variation characteristics in Yuanzhou District of Guyuan City in recent 60 years[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(20):8043-8049.
固原市原州区近60 a降水变化特征分析
Analysis of precipitation variation characteristics in Yuanzhou District of Guyuan City in recent 60 years
投稿时间:2019-09-10  修订日期:2020-04-18
DOI:
中文关键词:  原州区  降水量  变化特征  趋势分析  突变分析
英文关键词:Yuanzhou district  precipitation  variation characteristics  trend analysis  abrupt change analysis
基金项目:宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划重大(重点)项目, 国家自然科学青年基金项目, 宁夏自然科学基金项目
           
作者单位
王充 宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院
燕宁娜 宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院
李超超 宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院
申若竹 北京首创股份有限公司
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中文摘要:
      以固原市原州区1957年-2016年的降水资料为基础,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平曲线和滑动t检验的方法对原州区近60年的年际和年内各时段的降水量进行变化趋势和突变分析。对降水资料进行分析,得到各时段的降水基本特征:多年年均降水量为439.6 mm,汛期和夏季降水量占比较大,分别达到72.8%和57%;冬季降水变差系数最大,最不稳定。通过线性回归法和M-K趋势检验法对降水量进行趋势分析:年、汛期和夏季降水量均呈下降趋势,下降速率分别为0.17 mm/a,0.91 mm/a,0.69 mm/a;春、秋、冬三季降水量呈上升趋势,上升速率分别为0.21 mm/a,0.03 mm/a,0.29 mm/a;除冬季外,其他各时段的趋势变化均未通过0.05的显著性检验。运用M-K突变检验、累积距平曲线和滑动t检验对各时段降雨的突变年份进行综合分析,年降水和汛期、秋季降水突变点相近,春、夏和汛期均在1991年发生突变,冬季降水在1979年有较为显著的突变。
英文摘要:
      Based on the precipitation data from 1957 to 2016 of Yuanzhou District, the variation trend and sudden changes of precipitation in Yuanzhou District in recent 60 years are analyzed. The methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly curve and sliding t test are utilized for basic characteristics analysis of precipitation in different periods. The results show that annual precipitation is 439.6 mm, and the precipitation in flood season and summer accounts for 72.8% and 57% respectively. The coefficient of variation of winter precipitation is the largest and the most unstable. The trend is analyzed by linear regression method and M-K trend test. The precipitation in flood season and summer?reveals a trend towards similarly reduced, the decreasing rates are 0.17 mm/a,0.91 mm/a and 0.69 mm/a respectively. While the increasing rate of spring, autumn and winter are 0.21 mm/a,0.03 mm/a, and 0.29 mm/a. However, the significant test of trend variation in other periods is below 0.05 except winter. M-K mutation test, cumulative anomaly curve and sliding t test are used to analyze the jump features?of?climate?changes. The abrupt change point of annual precipitation is similar to that of flood season and autumn precipitation. Spring, summer and flood season all have abrupt change in 1991, while winter precipitation has significant abrupt change in 1979.
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