Affected by the karst geomorphology and seasonal changes in the hydrodynamic environment, leakage accidents at the bottom of tailing pond in karst area occur frequently, leak point detection becomes the key to control the degree of disaster impact. This paper uses the grey correlation method to analyze the influence of multi-parameters on the seepage force of mud leakage. It is believed that the mud density and flow velocity have a great influence on the seepage force, and established a multiple linear regression equation between mud density, moisture content, velocity and mud seepage force. Furthermore, the numerical models of mud leakage under different leakage orifice sizes, moisture content, and dynamic viscosity were established. The numerical simulation results show that the mud moisture content and dynamic viscosity have little effect on the leakage influence radius, and the leakage orifice size has a close relationship with the leakage influence radius. The average horizontal influence radius is 4.61 times the leakage orifice radius, and the average vertical influence radius is 5 times the leakage orifice radius.