震后地质灾害易发性评价——以映秀震区为例
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P694

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Susceptibility Assessment of Post-Earthquake Geohazards in The Epicentral Area of The 2008 Wenchuan, Near Yingxiu
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    2008年汶川大地震诱发了数以万计的地质灾害,特别是在震中映秀附近,同震滑坡形成了大量松散物质堆积于沟道和山区斜坡上,为震后泥石流的发生提供了良好的物源条件,同时也有大量同震滑坡堆积体在震后发生复活。为了研究震后滑坡地质灾害发生的控制因素并进行易发性分析,本文对震中映秀附近2008年同震滑坡及2009年震后滑坡进行了遥感解译与野外调查复核。在此基础上,选取岩性、同震滑坡面密度、坡度、坡向、高程、相对高差、距河流距离和径流强度指数,8个因子作为震后滑坡地质灾害易发性评价的因子。利用确定性系数(CF)法和逻辑回归方法,定量评价了汶川震中区域震后地质灾害易发性,并对两个模型精度进行了比较。将研究区划分为193个小流域单元,将各评价因子进行分级,计算出各分级的CF值,并基于ArcGIS平台分别将CF值叠加得出各流域单元的CF值;利用SPSS计算各因子分级的标准化值,以得出各因子的回归系数,建立逻辑回归模型,最终对各个流域单元滑坡地质灾害的空间发生概率(即易发性)进行评价。根据结果将研究区域划分为5个区:高易发区 、较高度易发区 、中度易发区 、较低度易发区以和低易发区。通过ROC曲线检验CF法和逻辑回归评价方法的精度,AUC值分别为0.840和0.897,评价方法精度较高。

    Abstract:

    A lot of geological disasters were triggered by the 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake. Massive loose deposits stayed in gullies and on the slopes surface in Yingxiu and they will develop into debris flows after rainfall events. In terms of the result of remote sensing interpretation of co-seismic landslide in 2008 and post-earthquake geological disaster in 2009, the susceptibility assessment of post-earthquake geohazard is analyzed through controlling factors, which conclude lithology, co-seismic landslide area density, slope, aspect, elevation, internal relief, distance to stream and stream power index. The study area can be automatically divided in to 193 catchments and reclassify each factor using hydrological analysis tools in ArcGIS platform. Calculating the CF value of each secondary classification through certainty factor method, then add all CF values together through ArcGIS platform to obtain the CF of each catchment. Another method is logistic regression model. Firstly, calculating the standardized value of each secondary classification factors. Then the regression coefficients of each factor are calculated by logistic regression through SPSS platform. Finally we can obtain the probability of each catchment. Ultimately the post-earthquake disaster susceptibility is divided ,into 5 categories considering the CF method and logistic regression equation, which include very high, high, moderate, low, and very low susceptibility. And results of ROC curves are 0.840 and 0.897 respectively,indicating that the accuracy of both two method meet the requirement.

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陈怡,范宣梅. 震后地质灾害易发性评价——以映秀震区为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 20(9): 3516-3527.
Chen Yi, Fan Xuanmei. Susceptibility Assessment of Post-Earthquake Geohazards in The Epicentral Area of The 2008 Wenchuan, Near Yingxiu[J]. Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(9):3516-3527.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-06-25
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-31
  • 录用日期:2019-09-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-14
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