首页|期刊简介|投稿指南|分类索引|刊文选读|订阅指南|资料|样刊邮寄查询|常见问题解答|联系我们
陈林,牟凤云,李梦梅. 基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用-以垫江县为例[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2019, 19(35): 402-407.
chenlin.Early-warning model for the ecological security and its application based on the extension cloud theory- a case study of Dianjiang County[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2019,19(35):402-407.
基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用-以垫江县为例
Early-warning model for the ecological security and its application based on the extension cloud theory- a case study of Dianjiang County
投稿时间:2019-05-21  修订日期:2019-08-30
DOI:
中文关键词:  生态安全  PSR指标体系  可拓云  垫江县
英文关键词:ecological security psr indicator system extension cloud dianjiang county
基金项目:(41601564)资助第一
        
作者单位
陈林 重庆交通大学
牟凤云 重庆交通大学
李梦梅 重庆交通大学
摘要点击次数: 326
全文下载次数: 108
中文摘要:
      为了了解垫江县生态安全状况,建立了生态安全评价与预警模型。基于压力、状态、响应框架模型构建生态安全预警指标体系,采用主客观综合赋权法确定指标权重,并基于可拓云模型建立了区域生态安全预警模型。评价垫江县2005-2015年的生态安全,并对其2020年的生态安全进行预警。结果表明:(1)2005-2015年垫江县总体生态安全水平较高,2008-2010年、2012-2015年皆处于蓝色预警状态,但发展趋势呈下滑状态;(2)在影响垫江县生态安全的指标中,人均GDP、建成区绿化覆盖率保投入强度、万人拥有医院床位数的变化最为剧烈;(3)预测2020年垫江县的生态安全处于为黄色预警状态,人口和环保投入强度将成为影响垫江县生态安全的主要因素。可见生态安全评价与预警能为垫江县的生态工程建设提供决策参考,对垫江县生态安全的维护具有重要意义。
英文摘要:
      In order to understand the ecological security situation of Dianjiang County, an ecological security evaluation and early warning model was established. The ecological security early-warning index system was constructed based on the stress, state and response framework model. And the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method was used to determine the index weight. Then the regional ecological security early-warning model was established based on the extension cloud model for evaluating the ecological security of Dianjiang County from 2005 to 2015 and predicting the warning of ecological security in 2020. The results show that: (1)The overall ecological security level of Dianjiang County is relatively high in 2005-2015, and it is in the blue warning state in 2008-2010 and 2012-2015, but the development trend is declining. (2)Among the ecological security indicators in Dianjiang County, the per capita GDP, the green coverage rate of the built-up area, the intensity of environmental protection investment, and the number of hospital beds per 10,000 people have the most dramatic changes. (3)The prediction of ecological security level is yellow warning state in Dianjiang County in 2020; the population and the intensity of environmental protection investment would become the main factors affecting the ecological security of Dianjiang County. It is concluded that ecological security assessment and early warning can provide decision-making reference for the ecological engineering construction in Dianjiang County, which is of great significance to the maintenance of ecological security in Dianjiang County.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭
你是第31217387位访问者
版权所有:科学技术与工程编辑部
主管:中国科学技术协会    主办:中国技术经济学会
Tel:(010)62118920 E-mail:stae@vip.163.com
京ICP备05035734号-4
技术支持:本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计

京公网安备 11010802029091号