In order to analyze the factors of thermal diffusion of asphalt mixture paving, these factors were divided into environmental conditions, spreading layer conditions and underlying layer conditions. Firstly, simulation experiments of three kinds of factors were carried out based on the simulation model which was verified by credibility. Secondly, the sensitivity of factors in different classes were analyzed by orthogonal tests and variance analysis. Results show that air temperature and wind speed have a significant impact on the environmental conditions, and the sensitivity of solar radiation and effective radiation is weak. Thickness, mixture type and spreading temperature are sensitive in spreading layer conditions, and the sensitivity of aggregate type in spreading mixture is weak. Material type in underlying layer conditions has significant influence, but the thickness of underlying layer is not sensitive to the thermal diffusion of paving. Based on quantitative measurement above the research, avoidance conditions under different engineering conditions could be predicted, or specific technical schemes could be adopted in unfavorable environment to ensure the compaction quality of pavement.