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杨海燕,孙晓博,周广宇,等. 基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源与水环境系统模拟分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2019, 19(35): 348-355.
YANG Hai-yan,SUN Xiao-bo,ZHOU Guang-yu,et al.Simulation Analysis of Water Resources and Water Environment System in Tai[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2019,19(35):348-355.
基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源与水环境系统模拟分析
Simulation Analysis of Water Resources and Water Environment System in Tai
投稿时间:2019-04-26  修订日期:2019-08-30
DOI:
中文关键词:  水资源  水环境  系统动力学  泰安市
英文关键词:water resource  water environment  system dynamics  Tai’an
基金项目:
              
作者单位
杨海燕 北京建筑大学城市雨水系统与水环境教育部重点实验室
孙晓博 北京建筑大学城市雨水系统与水环境教育部重点实验室
周广宇 中国城市规划设计研究院
孙广东 中国城市规划设计研究院
刘世伟 中国城市规划设计研究院
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中文摘要:
      运用系统动力学模型对泰安市水资源与水环境系统进行了模拟和预测。通过对供水总量与需水总量、纳污能力与污染物排放量的对比,得出在趋势型情景下,泰安市水资源供需比与水环境纳污比将持续下降,表明泰安市未来将面临水资源短缺与水环境恶化的风险。为避免此情况发生,设定可达型与规划型情景对模型参数进行调整。结果显示,相比于趋势型情景,2030年泰安市在可达型与规划型情景下,需水总量分别下降了10%与16%,化学需氧量分别下降了30%与55%,氨氮排放量分别下降了37%与60%。水资源供需比在可达型与规划型情景下将达到0.89与1.06,水环境纳污比(由化学需氧量与氨氮表征)将达到0.93、0.75与1.43、1.18。说明可达型情景可以基本满足城市发展的需要,而规划型情景则可以在未来实现城市水资源供需平衡与水环境改善。
英文摘要:
      The system dynamics model was used to simulate and predict the water resources and water environment system in Tai"an. Compared total water supply with total water demand, pollution capacity with pollutant emissions load, it is concluded that under the trend scenario, the water supply and demand ratio and water environment pollution ratio in Tai"an would continue to decline. It is indicated that there would be risks of water shortages and deterioration of the water environment in the future of Tai"an. To avoid this situation, the reachable and planned scenarios was set to adjust the model parameters. The results show that compared with the trend scenario, the total water demand decreased by 10% and 16%, respectively, the chemical oxygen demand emissions load decreased emissions by 30% and 55%, respectively, Ammonia emissions load decreased by 37% and 60%, respectively, under the reachable and planned scenarios, in 2030, in Tai"an. The water supply and demand ratio will reach 0.89 and 1.06 in the reachable and planned scenarios, and the water environment pollution ratio (characterized by chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen) will reach 0.93, 0.75 and 1.43, 1.18. It is concluded that the reachable scenario can basically meet the needs of urban development, while the planning scenario can achieve the balance of supply and demand of urban water resources and the improvement of water environment in the future.
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